Libya: Central Bank Chief Flees From Militias

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Facts

• The head of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), Sadiq al-Kabir, announced Friday that he and other bank employees have fled the country due to threats from militias in the country's west. Al-Kabir claims the threats are the reason CBL operations have come to a halt for over a week.^[1][2]
• In a telephone call, al-Kabir told the Financial Times, 'militias are threatening and terrifying bank staff' and 'sometimes abducting their children and relatives to force them to go to work.'^[3]
• The CBL, which al-Kabir has run since the Western-backed toppling of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, holds $27B in reserve currency, the majority of which comes from the nation's oil revenue.^[4]
• Prior to 2022, Libya's banking system — instituted by international agreements — established that the state oil company (NOC) was in charge of selling oil, while the CBL controlled its revenue to fund the government.^[2]
• In 2022, Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah appointed a new head of the NOC. This was reportedly an attempt to appease eastern militias, the ones who recently shut down oil production, effectively freezing the economy.^[2]
• The UN has called for a suspension of conflict, for CBL employees to be protected, and for a resumption of oil production. While the US and Europe have condemned the ouster of al-Kabir, the individual appointed to take his place has refused to do so until the parliament approves.^[4]

Sources: ^[1]Al Jazeera, ^[2]Reuters, ^[3]English and ^[4]Guardian.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Middle East Institute. If this crisis goes unsolved for too long, Libya's oil-dependent economy could collapse, leading to financial devastation for millions and an all-out war between militant factions. Luckily, al-Kabir still maintains control of the bank's online systems from afar and enjoys protection from Turkey. al-Kabir must work to combat outside influences like Russia while also offering to negotiate with his internal enemies.
• Narrative B, as provided by Middleeastmonitor. While this crisis is undoubtedly a fight over money and power, Libyan groups aren't the only ones involved. Ever since the UN and US inserted al-Kabir into leadership in 2011, he's done nothing but run out of money and overcharge people. To act as if warring factions just randomly decided to hate the man is ludicrous, and Libya's economy won't heal until the West stops meddling in its affairs.

Predictions