Libertarian Party Selects Oliver; Rejects Trump, RFK Jr.

Facts

• On Sunday, the US Libertarian Party chose Chase Oliver as their candidate for the November presidential election. The Libertarian National Convention chose Oliver over former Pres. Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who both spoke at the convention.¹
• After seven hours of voting, the convention chose Oliver, 38. In his acceptance speech, he described himself as 'armed and gay.' He also urged an end to Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza, saying, 'end the genocide.'²
• Professor-turned-podcaster Michael Rectenwald was in the lead in the first 5 rounds but was eliminated in the 6th. In the final round, Oliver defeated 'none of the above' with approximately 60% of the vote, exceeding the 50% requirement.¹
• Kennedy received a warmer reception than Trump. An endorsement could have helped Kennedy get ballot access in all 50 states, his largest challenge in qualifying for the CNN presidential debate in June. However, Kennedy was eliminated in the first round of voting.³
• Meanwhile, Trump spoke at the convention on Saturday night, and many people in the room booed him. Even though members of the GOP praised him for addressing an unfriendly audience, Trump was eliminated from the Libertarian nomination process.⁴
• The Libertarian Party, founded in 1971, is the third-largest American political party by voter registration. The party supports civil freedoms and capitalism without government oversight and receives approximately 3% of the national vote.⁵

Sources: ¹FOX News, ²Guardian, ³Al Jazeera, ⁴ABC News and ⁵WION.

Narratives

• Libertarian narrative, as provided by thehill.com. The Libertarian Party rejected both Trump and Kennedy as they sought a more youthful candidate for the 2024 presidential election in Chase Oliver. At age 38, this is Oliver's first attempt at becoming President of the United States. His ambition is not to win the election but to build a nationwide campaign and educate young voters about libertarian values.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Daily Wire. Former Pres. Trump believes that, despite the outcome of the Libertarian nomination process, most Libertarian voters will choose him come election day. RFK Jr.'s radical left platform clearly does not fit the bill, and, of course, voters will resoundingly reject another four years of Joe Biden. As the former president eloquently explained during the Libertarian convention, Trump is the only choice to save America's sinking ship.
• Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by MSNBC. Trump's stumping at the Libertarian Party convention was an epic fail. In stark contrast to a MAGA rally, Trump was surprised to find himself in hostile territory and did not swoon libertarians like he'd hoped. Come November, it's very possible that a small but solid Libertarian Party led by Oliver could keep votes away from Trump.
• Narrative D, as provided by WSJ. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is still an incredible wildcard for the November election, even though he didn't win the Libertarian nomination. Polling shows it's still unclear if he causes more damage to Biden or Trump, but his vote totals could be enough to tip the scales in some swing states. Kennedy could be a difference maker in a state like Arizona — the GOP and Democratic Party alike need to pay very close attention.

Predictions