Leavitt Wins New Hampshire GOP Primary

Facts

  • Karoline Leavitt, a 25-year-old former communications staffer under former Pres. Donald Trump, won the Republican nomination in the race for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District on Tuesday, defeating Matt Mowers, the party's failed 2020 nominee, 33% to 26%.
  • Leavitt began working for the Trump admin. in 2019 under Press Sec. Kayleigh McEnany and, after Trump's 2020 loss, began working for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY). If elected, she'd be the youngest woman ever elected to Congress.
  • The McCarthy-aligned "Congressional Leadership" Fund backed Mowers, who worked as an advisor to former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo in the Trump admin., and was Chief of Staff to Dr. Deborah Birx while she led Trump's HIV/AIDS relief plan. The super PAC spent $1.2M attacking Leavitt, while Leavitt was given $10k by Stefanik's "E-Pac."
  • Leavitt positioned herself as the "America First" candidate, and was backed by Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio and Sens. Mike Lee of Utah and Ted Cruz of Texas. She has refused to say whether she'll back House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for Speaker of the House if she wins and the GOP wins the House majority.
  • Leavitt now faces two-term Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas in what's being considered a toss-up election this November.

Sources: Daily Caller, CNN, New York Times, FOX News, and Vox.

Narratives

  • Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Fox News. This was a battle to carry the mantle for Trump, and while Leavitt embraced it, Mowers wouldn’t go far enough. Leavitt’s "America First" campaign resonated with the voters, leading to victory for her and thus for Trump.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Daily Kos. This is a GOP setback. Despite outspending them drastically and calling them out for their crazy ideas, mainstream Republicans couldn't stop candidates from the far right from winning in New Hampshire's races. Republican voters have played into the Democrats’ hands by giving them opponents on the ballot who can be defeated.

Predictions

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