Leaders of Germany, France and Poland Make Show of Joint Unity on Ukraine

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Facts

  • The leaders of Germany, France and Poland — Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron and Donald Tusk, respectively — on Friday staged a show of unity over European support for Ukraine, holding a meeting and press conference in Berlin.1
  • Amid a stall in US funding for military aid to Ukraine, it has fallen on the shoulders of EU leaders to seek to provide Ukraine with the weaponry and ammunition it says it needs. However, prior to Friday's meeting, Scholz and Macron have publicly disagreed on how to proceed.2
  • Macron, who faced accusations of appeasement when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022, has in recent weeks become a Russia hawk. The French president recently suggested deploying European forces in Ukraine and has accused Berlin of dragging its feet over sending more weapons to the country.3
  • Meanwhile, Scholz, the German chancellor, has in recent weeks taken a more dove-like approach to Ukraine — although Germany has been Europe's biggest provider of arms to Kyiv. He rebuffed Macron's suggestion of stationing EU forces in Ukraine and defended his country's refusal to send Taurus long-range missiles. 'Unity is strength,' he said at Friday's meeting, but cracks nonetheless appeared.1
  • Macron, for his part, also tried to take on a more concilliatory tone in Friday's meeting. He said France, Germany and Poland were all committed to supporting Ukraine for 'as long as it takes' but 'never to prompt an escalation.' Meanwhile, Tusk, the Polish prime minister, a veteran of EU politics and who recently returned to the role, was hoped on to be a mediator.1
  • Poland, for its part, has had its own complications in its relationship with Ukraine — farmers in Poland began to block border crossings to prevent the influx of Ukrainian grain arriving in the country. The issue erupted last September following a speech from Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy that prompted then-Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to tell Zelenskyy never to 'insult' Poles again.4

Sources: 1POLITICO, 2The Guardian, 3BBC News and 4Al Jazeera.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by BBC News. In recent weeks, Emmanuel Macron has shifted from a dove to a hawk on the issues of Russia, Ukraine and European security. While this has raised eyebrows to some, including German diplomats, others are thinking perhaps that this is the leadership needed.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by The Guardian. Despite Scholz, Macron and Tusk trying to put on a show of a united front, there's major differences between these countries on the issue of Ukraine. Those differences began to reveal themselves from the cracks during Friday's meeting.

Predictions