UK Poll: Labour Would Lose 184 Seats in Hypothetical Election
An MRP [Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification] poll by More in Common, surveying over 11K UK adults between Oct. 31 and Dec. 16, 2024, has concluded that the Labour government, who was elected in July, would lose nearly 200 seats if a new election were held.
Facts
- An MRP [Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification] poll by More in Common, surveying over 11K UK adults between Oct. 31 and Dec. 16, 2024, has concluded that the Labour government, who was elected in July, would lose nearly 200 seats if a new election were held.[1][2]
- The poll projects Labour would win 228 seats, Conservatives 222, Reform UK 72, the Liberal Democrats 58, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) 37, and the Green Party two — leading to a hung parliament as no party would reach the 326-seat majority threshold.[3][4]
- Seven cabinet ministers would hypothetically lose their seats, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, with six falling to Reform UK and one to an independent candidate.[5][6]
- The national vote share would see the Conservatives lead at 26%, followed by Labour at 25%, Reform UK at 21%, Liberal Democrats at 14%, the Green Party at 8%, and the SNP at 2%.[7][8]
- The analysis shows 271/650 seats are projected to be won with less than a third of the vote share, while 221 seats would have a lead of less than five percentage points.[2]
- According to YouGov's latest polls, as of Dec. 23, government disapproval sits at 62% compared to 17% approval. Meanwhile, as of Dec. 16, 61% believed Sir Keir Starmer is performing "badly" as Prime Minister, compared to 26% who believe he is doing "well."[9][10]
Sources: [1]The Times, [2]More In Common, [3]Independent, [4]Daily Mail, [5]The Mirror, [6]GB News, [7]The Telegraph, [8]Huffington Post, [9]YouGov (a) and [10]YouGov (b).
Narratives
- Left narrative, as provided by The Mirror and The Guardian. Labour offers the only credible path to rebuild the UK after years of Tory mismanagement. With bold steps to restore public services, address pay disparities, and invest in growth, Labour provides stability and progress. While critics focus on early challenges, Keir Starmer's leadership shows promise while the populist fantasies under Farage would deepen division and derail recovery. Labour must lead to ensure a fairer, stronger future for all.
- Right narrative, as provided by GB News and Express. Starmer's Labour has stalled the economy with anti-growth policies and record tax hikes. Gross domestic product has stagnated, leaving Britons poorer, while businesses face increased costs as investment flees. Internal divisions and weak leadership have compounded the party's failures. Starmer and his government are proving incapable of delivering the prosperity and stability the UK needs.
