Kyiv Ready to Begin Counteroffensive, Senior Ukrainian Official Says

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Facts

  • Ukraine is ready to launch its much-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, a senior Ukrainian official has said in an interview with the BBC.1
  • Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, didn't give a date but said Ukraine's attempts to regain territory lost in the last 15 months of fighting "could happen tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in a week."1
  • The comments echoed those of Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence, who earlier this week told Japanese broadcaster NHK: "We already have minimum weapons and other equipment stocks in place. I can only say that it [the counteroffensive] will start soon."2
  • Meanwhile, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, also suggested the country's counteroffensive could begin imminently. On Saturday, he posted a promotional video to his Facebook page with the words: "It is time to take back what's ours... to liberate Ukraine from the Russian occupiers and raise the banner of victory."3
  • Zaluzhnyi, who was absent from public view for a number of weeks, prompted claims by pro-Kremlin social media channels that he was critically injured in Russian missile strikes earlier this month. Those claims were put to rest after he appeared on video earlier in the week.4

Sources: 1BBC News, 2Newsweek, 3Ukrainska Pravda, and 4Kyiv Post.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Guardian. After months of planning and preparation — with Kyiv reportedly building up 60K forces for this counteroffensive — the 15-month war is now poised to enter one of its most critical phases. However, exactly where Ukraine will launch this counteroffensive remains to be seen.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). Talk of Ukraine's counteroffensive has been hyped up for months. The problem is that Ukraine could end up paying the price for such a successful PR campaign: If the counteroffensive doesn't live up to expectations, Western support could dry up, and Kyiv could be forced to the negotiating table.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. The West's pushing of Ukraine to launch this counteroffensive despite the likely catastrophic consequences for its country is yet another indication of how the West wants to inflict damage on Russia without consideration for the damage it will do to Ukraine.

Predictions