Kyiv Claims 'Russian Sabotage Group' Blew Up Dam

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Facts

• The domestic Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Friday cited a phone call between two Russian-speaking men as evidence that a 'Russian sabotage group' blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and dam. In the clip posted to Telegram, the men are allegedly heard saying, 'They (the Ukrainians) didn't strike it. That was our sabotage group.'¹
• While Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy claims it was a Russian 'terrorist attack,' the mayor of the nearby city of Novaya Kakhovka, Vladimir Leontyev, said the incident—located in Russia’s Kherson Region which has left 14 settlements inhabiting 22K people at risk of flooding—was conducted by a Ukrainian multiple launch rocket system.²
• Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-appointed head of Ukraine’s Kherson province, which Russia claims to have annexed, said water levels in Nova Kakhovka have dropped by 2.5m (8.2ft) from Tuesday’s peak. However, they remain 'at the maximum' in Oleshky and Hola Prystan, which is opposite Kherson.³
• Meanwhile, Ukrainian deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said that the epicenter of fighting remains in the east, though the situation remains 'tense' along the frontline, and Ukrainian troops are 'engaged in active combat' around the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.⁴
• US and German armor have reportedly been sighted for the first time, which may indicate Kyiv's counterattack is underway. Japan has also offered $5M in humanitarian aid after the dam explosion.⁵
• Elsewhere, Russian Pres. Putin said he's set to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. According to the Kremlin, he told Belarusian Pres. Lukashenko that 'Everything is going according to plan' and that 'Preparation of the relevant facilities ends on July 7-8...'⁶

Sources: ¹FOX News, ²RT, ³Guardian, ⁴CNN, ⁵Al Jazeera and ⁶NBC.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT. Russian troops have been in control of the Kakhovka hydro plant and dam since February of last year. Since then, it has been Ukrainian officials, cited by the Washington Post, who have proposed striking the infrastructure with NATO-supplied rocket artillery. Before the dam's collapse, Ukraine had also raised the water levels of the Kakhovka reservoir to record levels, placing further pressure on the facility. There was no good reason for either side to commit such sabotage, but one thing is for sure: it was not done by Russia.
• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by BBC News. While no one knows yet exactly what or who is behind the Kakhovka dam collapse, the evidence seems to point toward Russia.  As Ukraine was set to launch its counter-offensive, Russia likely feared Kyiv would use the road running above to transport troops over the river and into Russian territory. This also comes as Russia has attacked several other dams throughout the war.

Predictions