Kremlin Suggests 'Colossal' Ukrainian Losses in Russian-Occupied Territory

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Facts

  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Ukrainian marines and special forces have suffered 'colossal' losses after successfully crossing the east bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region. This comes as the UK Defense Ministry said both sides have been fighting in several villages including Krynky, characterizing the fighting as 'confused, dismounted infantry combat and artillery exchanges in complex, wooded terrain.'1
  • Over the past day, Russia has also reportedly launched five missile strikes, 61 air strikes, and more than 60 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) attacks in several regions, including Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Kherson per Ukrainian media. Russian artillery reportedly impacted over 150 settlements in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions.2
  • It is unclear if Russia will be scaling back or preparing a 'third wave' of assaults on the Eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. Russian forces in recent weeks have tried to encircle the strategically important town and its chemical plant.1
  • European Council President Charles Michel is set to visit Kyiv to have a 'difficult' discussion about Ukraine joining the EU. While Michel said would give full support to get the bloc to decide on accession talks in December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he believes the EU 'will be ready to do its part.'3
  • While US President Joe Biden's call for an additional $61B in aid to Ukraine has stalled in Congress, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the Pentagon will send an additional $100M in weapons from its existing stockpiles. Germany, too, will send another $1.4B in military aid; meanwhile, Russia has denied accusations that it may receive ballistic missiles from Iran.3
  • This comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the G20 summit virtually on Wednesday, during which he said his country is ready to negotiate and discuss how to end this 'tragedy.' Some analysts, however, believe he won't engage in talks until after the 2024 US election.4

Sources: 1CNBC, 2Ukrinform, 3The Guardian and 4Sky News.

Narratives

  • Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Kyiv Post. As the war has reached the two-year mark, Vladimir Putin has learned that his military cannot win a decisive military victory without completely depleting his arsenal and risking his domestic political power. If the West put its entire financial, technological, and military might up against Moscow, Putin would be finished and Ukraine safe. The future of the West is up to its leaders and how much they want to defend its borders from future Russian aggression.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT International. Ukraine is absolutely right when it says its only path to victory is complete Western involvement in the war. However, the powers that be decided to only offer help 'for as long as it takes' but not 'with whatever it takes.' In the meantime, it's stretched itself too thin in the Middle East as its so-called allies in Kyiv endure devastating loss after devastating loss. Europe and the US do not want to go to war with Russia, so they're best bet is now to concede and finally accept Moscow's offer to negotiate peace.

Predictions