Koch Network to Oppose Trump in 2024

Facts

• Americans for Prosperity (AFP), a conservative group that spends billions on campaigns and is backed by billionaire Charles Koch, said Sunday it will support a candidate other than former Pres. Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential primaries.
• Though many AFP donors were fans of Trump in 2016, Koch and his brothers were not; they stayed out of those primaries. The PAC reportedly donated $80M during the 2022 midterms, with CEO Emily Seidel saying the former Trump-supporting donors have 'soured on the ex-president' since 2020.
• In a three-page memo, Seidel said the GOP is 'nominating bad candidates who are advocating for things that go against core American principles.' She added that the 'best thing' for the US is 'to have a president in 2025 who represents a new chapter.'
• AFP didn't say how much it will spend on the 2024 election, though it says it has a large grassroots and data operation 'with some of [its] strongest and most effective state chapters' ready to 'play a crucial role' in picking the next GOP candidate.
• This news comes after many of the major donors to AFP have shifted their support to other endeavors, and former key AFP strategists have moved on to other jobs. They've also been the target of Trump himself, who in 2018 called them 'a total joke in real Republican circles.'
• Trump is so far the only candidate to officially announce his presidential bid, though potential opponents include former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who is expected to announce on Feb. 15, as well as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former vice president Mike Pence.

Sources: Mother Jones, Forbes, Forbes, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by Red State. Plenty of Republican candidates and groups have their knives out for Trump. If they’re right, and an alternative candidate is necessary to retake the White House, they better coalesce around one Trump challenger rather than making the mistakes they made in 2016.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Townhall. Trump doesn't win all the time, but that doesn't take away his overall winning track record or his potential for victory in 2024. Just like 2016, liberals and never-Trumpers are handwringing over Trump’s candidacy spelling doom for Republicans. But rank-and-file Republicans still love him, and if he gets enough of their votes, he should be allowed to ride his way to the nomination, and possibly the White House.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There’s a 43% chance Trump will be the Republican 2024 presidential nominee, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Predictions