Koch Network Endorses Nikki Haley for President

Facts

• Americans for Prosperity Action, the political network associated with billionaire Charles Koch, threw its weight behind former South Carolina Governor and UN ambassador Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary race on Tuesday.¹
• The decision, which is the first time the network has endorsed a primary candidate, comes seven weeks before the Iowa caucus.²
• AFP Action said its support would begin with 'a multimillion dollar ad campaign launching this week in all early and several Super Tuesday states.' During the 2022 midterm elections, AFP reportedly knocked on around 5.5M doors, made 2M calls, and sent out nearly 70M pieces of mail — tactics Haley currently lacks compared to fellow candidate Ron DeSantis.³
• The Koch network has also raised over $70M for political races as of this summer and spent $9M on anti-Donald Trump material. While this endorsement will help Haley compete against DeSantis, Trump remains the dominant front-runner.⁴
• In response, both the Trump and DeSantis campaigns criticized the move, with the Florida governor's team equating the endorsement to a donation to the former president, while a spokesman for Trump called AFP 'the political arm of the China First, America Last movement.'⁴
• Though AFP has decided to pick Haley as its favorite alternative to Trump, it does have its policy differences with the former governor. While Haley criticized Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan, AFP supported the move; and Haley called for military strikes against Iran, something the Kochs's foreign policy operation has opposed.⁴

Sources: ¹New York Post, ²CNN, ³FOX News and ⁴The New York Times.

Narratives

• Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by National Review. At this point, Republican voters aren't quite sure whether DeSantis or Haley is better, but they do know that Trump is the worst one of them all and must be defeated. As DeSantis' campaign has been struggling since its launch, his hope has been to retain the support of the donor class — with the Koch endorsement, however, Haley will not only gain the incredible funding and grassroots activism provided by AFP but the donor class may change their mind on who they'd prefer to back.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by The New Republic. It's unclear why the Koch network hates Trump so much, given that under his presidency, many of its preferred policies were enacted. While this could be seen as a boost to the Haley campaign, Trump is way ahead of any other candidate with a national average of 61.6% in the polls, compared to Haley's 9.8%. AFP seems to be giving it its best shot, but Trump's popularity and AFP's nonexistent policy qualms with the former president make this a curious decision at best.

Predictions