Kevin McCarthy to Quit Congress at Year's End

Facts

• Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) announced in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Wednesday that he will leave Congress at the end of the year, closing his nine-term career in the House. Though his future plans haven't been immediately laid out, he intends to remain involved in GOP politics.¹
• This comes roughly two months after he became the first speaker ever to lose the gavel midsession at the hands of eight members of his own conference. His speakership was the third shortest in history, lasting just 269 days.²
• Politico first reported in early October that the ousted speaker was strongly considering quitting Congress. If he formally steps down after Friday at 5 p.m., California's Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom can choose whether to call a special election or keep the seat vacant until the next election.³
• The timing of the announcement frustrated some of his fellow Republicans, as McCarthy made a decision only two days before California's filing deadline of Dec. 8 for prospective candidates. His 20th District, made up of the suburbs and farmlands around Bakersfield and Fresno, is considered safely red.⁴
• The House will have 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats at the start of 2024, with two vacancies following the departure of McCarthy and George Santos (R-N.Y.), meaning that the GOP can only afford to lose two votes to pass a bill given the required tally of 218. A special election for Santos' 3rd District of New York has been scheduled for Feb. 13.⁵
• Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) is also expected to resign early next year but his loss will likely be counterbalanced in the near term by the departure of Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.).⁶

Sources: ¹The Wall Street Journal, ²NBC, ³Politico, ⁴Roll Call, ⁵FOX News and ⁶Axios.

Narratives

• Right narrative, as provided by American Conservative. McCarthy has finally confirmed what Americans knew: his congressional career has come to an end. Though praising his fundraising talent in a farewell address that reads like a resume to impress the establishment and financial center-right, he should explain why he decided to undermine America First candidates to protect his congressional leadership at the expense of a larger House majority. History has now left the McCarthy era behind for the GOP and the right-leaning populist movement that underpins it.
• Conservative narrative, as provided by American Spectator. While McCarthy isn't irreplaceable, his retirement from Congress is another indication that the era when the GOP valued its diversity and embraced good-faith disagreements may be gone forever. Matt Gaetz and his Gang of Eight are willing to push the Republican conference to the extremes — even if that means risking the implosion of the party and losing control of the House. More traditional conservative values and figures are needed to re-galvanize the power of the GOP.

Predictions