Kamala Harris Becomes Betting Favorite for Democratic Nomination

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Facts

• Vice President Kamala Harris is now the betting favorite to become the Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election, according to multiple prediction market platforms.¹
• Harris' odds of becoming the nominee surged on Thursday amid the Democratic Party's widely publicized intrigue regarding the status of Pres. Joe Biden's candidacy. Many prominent Democrats have called on the president to step down following his debate performance last month.²
• Biden's recent COVID diagnosis and ongoing political friction have prompted online betting sites PredictIt, Polymarket, and others to suggest that Biden will not be the Democrats' candidate to face former Pres. Donald Trump in the general election.²
• Betting markets and opinion polling also widely predict Trump as the favorite to win November's election. His odds of winning are 12-to-1, according to Star Sports, while Harris' are 7-to-2.³
• While more and more members of his party are asking him to drop out, Biden’s campaign on Friday reiterated his commitment to staying in the race. The statement comes amid conflicting media reports about Biden’s future and conversations within his inner circle.⁴
• The Democratic National Convention starts Aug. 19, and the party met Friday to discuss a virtual voting process to officially name its nominee. As it stands, Biden is still on track to win the nomination unless he decides to step down.⁵

Sources: ¹Newsweek, ²Forbes, ³The Hill, ⁴BBC News and ⁵Reuters.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by PBS NewsHour. Joe Biden has dedicated his life to serving the American people, and Democrats appreciate everything he has meant to the party. However, the President’s age and signs of cognitive decline hurt the party’s chances of winning in November. Biden knows that Kamala Harris is more than ready to take the reins as the country’s commander-in-chief, and most Democrats agree. Harris has the experience and broad appeal to win this election, and she should be the nominee.
• Narrative B, as provided by Newsweek. Democrats need to close ranks around Biden and give him their full support. With Trump surging in the polls, JD Vance selected for the GOP ticket, and Project 2025 lurking on the horizon, America's very democracy is at risk. The most effective approach is to praise Biden's numerous policy achievements, outline the dangers of Trumpism, and vigorously campaign as a united front.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Federalist. While it’s clear that Joe Biden is physically and mentally incapable of performing the duties of the presidency, Kamala Harris is no sure bet to save the Democrats' sinking ship. Most opinion polls show that Americans have an unfavorable view of the vice president, and she performs even worse than Biden does against Trump in many polls. Even the left-leaning media was impressed by Trump's performance at the Republican National Convention. Whether it's Biden or Harris, the Democrats are toast.

Predictions