50K Russian, North Korean Troops Prepare to Mount Offensive in Kursk Region

Facts

• Russia has amassed some 50K troops, including at least 10K North Korean soldiers that recently arrived in the country, in an effort to dislodge Ukraine's forces from Russia's Kursk region.^[1]
• It comes as state media in both Russia and North Korea reported that their respective leaders — Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un — have in recent days both signed into law a mutual-defense treaty that vows to defend one another in the case of an attack.^[2]
• After launching a surprise invasion of the lightly defended Russian border region in August, Ukrainian forces captured vast swaths of territory with virtually no resistance. Soon after, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the territory captured could be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations.^[3][4]
• While military officials said the attack would divert Russian troops from Ukraine, according to multiple reports, Russia intensified its attacks in eastern Ukraine and has since advanced at its fastest rate of the war.^[5][6]
• The New York Times has said that, with Russian forces clawing back territory, US intelligence and military officials "have grown more pessimistic about Ukraine’s overall prospects," adding that setbacks are in part due to Ukraine's inability to replenish troop numbers.^[7][8]
• In its latest assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — a US military think tank that tracks troop positions in the conflict — reported Russian gains near Kupyansk in Kharkiv and Kremmina in Luhansk, while adding Russian troops were making "tactically significant gains south of Kurakhove."^[9][10]

Sources: ^[1]CNN (a), ^[2]CNN (b), ^[3]The Guardian, ^[4]South China Morning Post, ^[5]Al Jazeera, ^[6]France 24, ^[7]The New York Times, ^[8]The New York Times via Archive, ^[9]Understanding War and ^[10]Ukrainska Pravda.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. By fighting these 50K troops on Russian territory, Ukrainian soldiers are keeping enemy forces from the frontlines in Ukraine. The nation is thankful to those serving for helping keep the country safe.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The New York Times. With the assistance of North Korea, Russia has been able to leverage 50K troops in Kursk without sacrificing its presence in eastern Ukraine, making US officials pessimistic about Ukraine's long-term prospects. These are dangerous times for Ukraine, and it might be wise to start considering peace talks.