Jim Jordan Dropped as GOP Nominee for House Speaker

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Facts

  • On Friday, the House Republican Conference voted in a closed-door ballot to drop Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as its speaker nominee, hours after he failed to win over 217 votes on the House floor for the third time.1
  • Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) later announced that the GOP would hold a new speaker candidate forum on Monday and an internal conference vote on Tuesday.2
  • Multiple potential candidates have already emerged ahead of a Sunday noon deadline to enter the race, including GOP Study Committee Chair Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), and GOP Conference Vice Chair Mike Johnson (R-La.).3
  • Though Emmer — endorsed by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — is reportedly a frontrunner, his bid could fail as likely Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is allegedly critical of Minnesota lawmaker taking over the speaker's chair.4
  • Republicans currently control the House but haven't been able to elect a speaker. On Friday, Trump ally Jordan received only 194 votes — his lowest count yet — despite a nominating speech from McCarthy.5
  • Collecting slightly more than 45% of the total ballots cast, Jordan received the lowest percentage of votes for the majority party's speaker nominee since December 1859, when the top candidate received 35% of the vote on the first ballot.6

Sources: 1The Hill, 2NBC, 3FOX News, 4Politico, 5Associated Press and 6Business Insider.

Narratives

  • Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by New York Post. The sane faction of the GOP has shown its courage, providing some hope for the party's future. It would have been a tremendous moral and electoral liability to have an unconservative Trumpist firebrand whose allies teamed up with Democrats to oust McCarthy as the Republican face in Congress, primarily due to his role in the run-up to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
  • Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by The Federalist. The Republican establishment has once again manifested its contempt for the will of conservative voters, now by opposing Jordan as House speaker. This isn't to say that the founding member of the House Freedom Caucus is perfect, but that his voting record does indicate that his speakership would be an improvement for the GOP base.

Predictions