Japan's New Births Fell to Record Low in 2023

Facts

• Preliminary data released Tuesday by Japan's government shows 2023 was the eighth consecutive year of declining annual births, reaching a record low of approximately 759K. Deaths in 2023 also reached a record of approximately 1.6M.¹
• The yearly birth total is a 5.1% decrease from 2022. Marriages have also declined by 5.9% from the year prior to approximately 489K — a 90-year low.²
• Speaking to reporters, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Japan's birthrate was at a 'critical situation' with the 'last chance to reverse the trend' being 2030.³
• According to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan's population is predicted to decline by approximately 30% to 87M by 2070.⁴
• Previously, the Institute had estimated annual births in Japan wouldn't decline to 760K until 2035.⁵
• National data in September 2023 showed 1-in-10 of Japan's population being over age 80 for the first time, with approximately 29% age 65 or older.⁶

Sources: ¹The Japan Times, ²Japan Today, ³Independent, ⁴Reuters, ⁵Kyodo News+ and ⁶BBC News.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The Diplomat. The government is planning radical countermeasures to boost Japan's birth rate, but it may be too late. Unfortunately, the damage may be irreversible and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio may have a hard time selling new policies to the public because of his lack of popularity. Japan is in demographic trouble.
• Narrative B, as provided by Tokyo Review. Japan's demographic crisis is not an isolated event, as China, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, Taiwan, and the US are among the nations about to face the same reality. In this case, Japan may have a leg up because it has had time to devise its plan for dealing with a population decrease since the '70s.

Predictions