Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors' Group Wins Nobel Peace Prize

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Facts

  • The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Nihon Hidankyo, a Japanese organization of atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, for its efforts against nuclear weapons.[1][2][3]
  • In its announcement on Friday, the Norwegian Nobel Committee added that the Japan Confederation of A- and H-Bomb Suffers Organizations, formed in 1956, has 'contributed greatly' to stigmatizing the use of nuclear weapons.[1][2][4][5]
  • One of its co-chairs, Toshiyuki Mimaki, said the 'award mean[t] a lot to everyone who has been part of Nihon Hidankyo' and would 'give a major boost' to anti-nukes efforts, in a live interview with NHK in Hiroshima.[6][7]
  • This comes ahead of the 80th anniversary of the US atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945, and as threats to use nuclear weapons allegedly damage the long-established nuclear taboo.[1][2][8]
  • The number of nuclear warheads in the world as of March 2024 was estimated at more than 12K, distributed in the arsenals of nine countries — with over 90% belonging to Russia and the US.[9]
  • This is the fourth time that the Nobel Committee has awarded individuals and organizations opposing nuclear weapons, with previous winners being the Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War in 1985, the Pugwash Conference and Joseph Rotblat in 1995, and the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons in 2017.[10]

Sources: [1]Metaculus (a), [2]Nobel Peace Prize, [3]BBC News, [4]Guardian, [5]Metaculus (b), [6]NHK, [7]Reuters, [8]Al Jazeera, [9]Arms Control Association and [10]Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by New York Times. In a world increasingly desensitized to nuclear threats, this prize serves as a poignant reminder of the human cost of atomic warfare. Members of Nihon Hidankyo have tirelessly shared their harrowing experiences for decades, putting faces and stories to the abstract horror of nuclear devastation. The recognition amplifies the urgent need to heed the voices of those who have witnessed atomic destruction firsthand, making them uniquely deserving of this honor.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Foreign Affairs. Just because there's great opposition to nuclear weapons doesn't mean they are inherently bad, as nuclear arsenals are meant to serve as an ultimate deterrence — not to improve offensive capabilities. Nihon Hidankyo and the Nobel Committee certainly have good intentions, but history has shown that when new nations obtain nuclear weapons, military imbalances are reduced, and stability on regional and international levels is achieved.

Predictions