Japan: Ruling Party Loses Majority After Snap Election

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Facts

• In a weekend snap election, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the country's lower house of parliament, with no party reaching the required 233 seats. A vote on a new premiership will take place on Nov. 11.^[1][2]
• According to state broadcaster NHK, LDP finished with 191 seats in the 465-seat chamber, followed by 148 seats for the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), 38 for the Japan Restoration Party, 28 for the National Democratic Party, and 24 for Komeito.^[3][4]
• While the LDP and Komeito lost 65 and 8 seats, the Constitutional Democratic Party gained 50 seats. This is the first time the LDP lost its majority in the lower chamber in 15 years.^[5]
• Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that the result was a 'severe judgment' for the LDP, adding that he would continue in office and enact 'fundamental reform' within 'money and politics.'^[6][7]
• On Monday, Japan's Nikkei Stock Average and the Tokyo Stock Price Index rose by 1.8% and 1.5% respectively, while the Yen initially fell to a three-month low past $153.80 before moderating.^[8][9]
• The LDP had initially governed Japan from its foundation in 1955 until 1993 before reentering government within a year and regaining the prime minister's office in 1996. It lost power in 2009, but returned in 2012 and has governed since.^[10][11]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]Sky News, ^[3]NHKニュース, ^[4]Archive, ^[5]Japantimes, ^[6]BBC News, ^[7]Al Jazeera, ^[8]Nikkei Asia, ^[9]XE, ^[10]Encyclopedia Britannica and ^[11]Washington Post.

Narratives

• Right narrative, as provided by South China Morning Post. Despite a monumental blow to Ishiba and his coalition, the LDP remains Japan's largest party, and its continued governance of the country remains a plausible outcome of this election. Ishiba's ascension as LDP leader was intended as a break from the status quo political corruption that had marred Japan for so long — divided opposition may buy the prime minister time to shore up his position and turn the corner that the country so clearly desires.
• Left narrative, as provided by The Asahi Shimbun and Kyodo News+. Though Japan's opposition parties were unable to come to an official agreement prior to the election to finally remove a weakened and scandal-riddled LDP from power, momentum remains with the country's advocates for change following a hugely successful night for the CDPJ. Now, the real discussions must begin, as rival interests and ideologies must be placed to one side to ensure a new era for Japanese politics.

Predictions