Japan: Population Declines by Record 800K

Facts

• Data released by the government of Japan on Wednesday shows that the country's population declined at its fastest-ever pace in 2022, with the number of Japanese citizens contracting by around 800K, a record number.¹
• This was the first time that Japan's population fell in all 47 prefectures of the country since their demographic surveys began in 1968. A record low number of births — around 772K — and record high deaths — at 1.57M — sank the number of Japanese citizens to around 122.4M.²
• The latest data also showed that the number of foreign nationals in Japan climbed to just under 3M, with their number increasing in every prefecture. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimates that foreign nationals will account for 10.2% of the population by 2067.³
• Japan's aging and declining population has been termed a crisis by PM Fumio Kishida, who says the nation risks not being able to "maintain its societal functions" if trends don't reverse. More than half of Japan's municipalities are considered to be depopulated.⁴
• 85% of Japan's municipalities added new foreign residents to their population. Some cities and resort towns saw their population rise thanks to foreign workers and internal migration, while some areas have had success attracting young families with child care and housing.³
• Meanwhile, 21% of Japan's population is over the age of 65 — expected to increase to 40% by 2050 at current rates. Japan's fertility rate, 1.3 children per woman, is comparable to South Korea (0.78), China (1.70), and the US (1.64), with a fertility rate of 2.1 needed to maintain Japan's population.⁵

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²The Japan Times, ³Nikkei Asia, ⁴Guardian, and ⁵Tokyo Review.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The Economist. Japan, once the poster child for population decline, is now just one of many developed countries that are facing population collapse thanks to shrinking fertility rates. Indeed, underpopulation, not overpopulation, is becoming the most pressing demographic threat to humanity. This will force countries like Japan — a harbinger of what the rest of the world will face — to adopt higher taxes, push back the retirement age, and face an intractable economic decline.
• Narrative B, as provided by New York Times. A declining population is not a one-way ticket to economic collapse, as dire predictions with regard to population trends fail to reflect reality. People in developed countries like Japan without children are simply making tradeoffs, as a declining birth rate is offset by a meteoric rise in life expectancy. A shift away from a mindset of endless growth and toward quality of life will have a beneficial impact on the environment and our well-being. There's no need to panic, as this time of change will bring as many opportunities as challenges.

Predictions