Japan: Former Defense Minister Announces Bid to Succeed PM
Former Japanese Defense Minister and Secretary-General of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba announced on Saturday his candidacy to succeed Fumio Kishida as party chief and prime minister....
Facts
- Former Japanese Defense Minister and Secretary-General of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba announced on Saturday his candidacy to succeed Fumio Kishida as party chief and prime minister.[1][2]
- This is his fifth — and allegedly final — attempt to win LDP elections and automatically take office as the leader of Japan due to the party's majority in parliament, which has been uninterrupted since 2012.[3][4][5]
- Ishiba was the second individual to enter the race, following former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki, as Prime Minister Kishida announced last week his decision not to run for another three-year term.[2][6][7]
- Many others interested in running in the Sept. 27 internal race, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, have yet to secure support from the 20 LDP lawmakers required before they can declare their candidacy.[8]
- Recent polls have offered mixed results about the most favored candidate, with Ishiba and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi appearing as front-runners. At least two of them, however, show Koizumi ahead among LDP supporters.[9][10]
- The next party leader must win a simple majority in a first round that includes equally divided votes between its lawmakers and over 1M dues-paying members, or in a runoff election where LDP legislators get about 88% of the vote.[11][7]
Sources: [1]Reuters, [2]NHK, [3]The Asahi Shimbun, [4]Kyodo News+ (a), [5]Economist, [6]Al Jazeera, [7]Associated Press, [8]Kyodo News+ (b), [9]Kyodo News+ (c), [10]Nikkei Asia and [11]The Japan Times.
Narratives
- Narrative A, as provided by Japan. Ishiba is a well-experienced and respected politician who enjoys popular support to become prime minister and has what it takes to rein in party factions involved in scandals and ensure that the LDP will abide by the rules. After 38 years in politics and four unsuccessful runs for party leadership, it's time for Ishiba to take the position.
- Narrative B, as provided by South China Morning Post. Ishiba may be popular in Japan, particularly with grassroots party members and media, but he has very little hope of winning this internal election, as conservative factions despise him for his past attacks on Shinzo Abe. Given the weight of lawmakers in this process, the best he will be able to achieve is a repeat of 2012 — defeat in a runoff vote.
