Japan: Diaper Maker Shifts From Babies to Adults

Facts

• Japanese diaper maker Oji Holdings said Tuesday it will stop making infant diapers in the country and shift to adult products. This comes as the number of births fell to just under 759K in 2023, a 5.1% drop.¹
• The firm cites a reduction in diaper production from 700M a year at its peak in 2001 to the current 400M for the switch. However, it will continue making infant diapers in Malaysia and Indonesia.²
• The paper products specialist will keep selling diapers in Japan — wherein adult diaper sales have been higher than children's diaper sales for over a decade — till stocks last.³
• Japan's population has been declining since hitting a peak of 128.1M in 2010. It hovers around 125M and is expected to fall to 88M by 2065.⁴
• The country's population is shrinking, reportedly due to aging, lower wedding and birth rates, and more women joining the workforce. The government's measures, including subsidies targeting young couples, haven't helped reverse the trend.⁵

Sources: ¹The Japan Times, ²BBC News, ³The Guardian, ⁴South China Morning Post and ⁵AOL.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by BBC News. Japan's aging society confronts policy shifts, emphasizing social structures and mental well-being for seniors. Many Japanese seniors remain active through work, hobbies, and community engagement, promoting cognitive health and quality of life. Many challenge stereotypes with humor, reflecting a cultural shift towards embracing aging gracefully beyond traditional health practices.
• Narrative B, as provided by Freetrade. Japan's demographic shift reflects broader global changes, including declining birth rates. Investors can leverage such insights by understanding demographic shifts globally, like the wealth transition from Baby Boomers to Gen Z in emerging markets like China. The resultant consumer behavior can be road signs for healthcare, athleisure wear, and plant-based foods, emphasizing the need for nuanced, data-driven analysis in investment strategies.
• Narrative C, as provided by The Japan Times. Falling birth rates in countries like Japan and China pose economic challenges. The world, in general, is expected to arrive at a demographic tipping point by 2050, impacting age distribution and economic growth. Pro-natalist policies, though attempted, face limited success. International migration mitigates demographic challenges in high-income countries but isn't a long-term solution. Low fertility rates may lead to severe global consequences, emphasizing the urgency for comprehensive solutions.

Predictions