Italy: Sardinia Elects First Female Leader, Defeats Meloni's Party

Facts

• Alessandra Todde of the left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S) party has won the Sardinian presidential election, defeating Paolo Truzzu of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's right-wing Brothers of Italy party.¹
• Truzzu, who was handpicked by Meloni to run on her party's ticket, won 45% of the vote while Todde narrowly beat him with 45.4%.²
• Todde, who received the backing of the center-left Democratic Party (PD), will now become the island's first-ever female president. She previously served as a minister under former prime ministers Giuseppe Conte and Mario Draghi.³
• This is the first electoral defeat for Meloni's coalition, which includes Matteo Salvini’s League party and Forza Italia. Salvini had wanted the incumbent Pres. Christian Solinas to run for office, but Meloni chose Truzzo amid corruption allegations against Solinas.¹
• Todde's win, the first time a center-left coalition has flipped a region since 2015, comes ahead of Italy's four other regional elections in June to elect members of the European Parliament.²
• The most recent national polls from YouTrend place Brothers of Italy at 28%, League at 8.3%, and Forza Italia at 7.6%. On the center-left side, PD and M5S are polling at around 20% and 16%, respectively.³

Sources: ¹The Guardian, ²Reuters and ³Barron's.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by Agenzia Nova. Despite pre-election polls giving the Brothers of Italy an advantage, Todde has proven that Sardinia is shifting in a more liberal direction. Even in the capital Cagliari, where Truzzo was Mayor, the PD-M5S coalition was extremely popular. Todde will not only become the first female leader of the island but also have a historic liberal majority in the regional council.
• Right narrative, as provided by The Telegraph. While liberals will tout this as a grand come-from-behind victory, the truth is that this was only a local race — a very close one for that matter. The Brothers of Italy and its coalition partners remain far ahead of the Democratic Party and M5S at the national level. Meloni picked the wrong candidate this time around, but the Italian people as a whole are still on her side.

Predictions