Israeli Forces Push Deeper into Northern Gaza

Facts

• Israeli forces pushed deeper into areas of northern Gaza this week, with tanks advancing into Jabalia on Tuesday. Residents said Jabalia's refugee camp was being bombarded from the air, with Palestinian medics reporting dozens of fatalities.^[1]
• At least 400K people are trapped in northern Gaza despite Israel's evacuation orders, according to the UN, with the Gaza health ministry adding that patients and medics are trapped inside three hospitals that were ordered to be evacuated. Israel said the raid in Jabalia is aimed at preventing Hamas from regrouping.^[2]
• All roads out of the area have been blocked except for the main highway leading south, and the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) said that seven schools housing the displaced were being evacuated.^[3]
• A New York Times report found that an estimated 60% of buildings across Gaza have been destroyed, and around 68% of its agricultural land has been damaged. In Jabalia, 81% of buildings have been damaged or destroyed.^[4]
• Meanwhile, US Pres. Joe Biden, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly spoke on the phone on Wednesday for almost an hour. The details of the conversation have not yet been released.^[5]
• Amid escalating tensions with Lebanon, after Netanyahu warned civilians to rise up against Hezbollah before Lebanon 'falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza,' Israel deployed a fourth division of troops to the north this week and issued evacuation orders that cover large swaths of the country.^[6]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]Independent, ^[3]PBS NewsHour, ^[4]New York Times, ^[5]Timesofisrael and ^[6]NBC.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New York Times. Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to the daily terror attacks it has seen since Oct. 7. However, it is in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Hamas continues to use Gaza's civilian population as human shields, as it increasingly converts schools and hospitals into command and control centers. Indeed, Hamas is solely to blame for the destruction of Gaza and its impact on the civilian population, as it started this terrible war with the massacres of Oct. 7. Israel will continue to pacify the group and confront its regional enemies.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by +972 Magazine. Israel's true goal in northern Gaza is to starve and exterminate the civilian population so that the region is never inhabited by Palestinians again. Israeli politicians and military officials have been quite clear about the country's genocidal goals, yet the media continues to ignore their horrifying ambitions. This is a campaign of mass extermination that has received the full backing of the US.
• Narrative D, as provided by Almayadeen. Israel has chosen to launch a civilizational war against the entire region, specifically Palestinians and the Shiites of the Middle East. Targeting lists leaked by Israeli media showed that Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's highest religious authority and a well-known moderate, was included as a possible target, proving that Israel's goal is to spark a religious war. Religious leaders like Sistani have consistently called for co-existence, which is exactly why Israel seeks to assassinate him.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Panda. There's a 1% chance that an Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days will be agreed to before November 5th, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Predictions