Israeli Forces Advance in Central Gaza

Facts

• The Israeli military announced on Tuesday that its forces would begin operations in the al-Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza. Tens of thousands of civilians are reportedly fleeing Bureij as well as the nearby al-Maghazi refugee camp after Israeli forces began bombarding the area Tuesday night.¹
• As the fighting continues unabated, efforts to secure a cease-fire picked up this week, with the Biden admin. dispatching CIA Director William Burns and Brett McGurk, the admin.'s primary Middle East adviser, to Qatar to meet with mediators.²
• Axios reported that officials described the diplomatic moves as a 'full-court press' to reach a breakthrough in negotiations, which have repeatedly stalled. Qatar's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that Qatar received an Israeli proposal 'that reflects the principles laid out in President Biden's speech.'³
• A senior Hamas official said on Tuesday that the group would only accept a deal that included a clear commitment to a permanent cease-fire and accused Israel of pursuing 'endless' negotiations.²
• Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu toured Israel's border with Lebanon on Wednesday and said that Israel is 'prepared for a very strong action in the north. In one way or another we will restore security to the north.' Intensive fighting between Israel and Hezbollah erupted shortly after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.⁴
• A senior Hezbollah figure said that if Israel expanded the war in Lebanon, Hezbollah would be 'ready for it.' The official went on to deny that Hezbollah had withdrawn its elite Radwan force from the border, saying 'We used a small portion of our capabilities in proportion to the nature of the battle.'⁵

Sources: ¹The New Arab, ²France 24, ³Axios, ⁴Reuters and ⁵Middle East Monitor.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Forward. A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better 'day after' in Gaza without Hamas in power. If Hamas is ready to engage constructively, the Israeli government must stand behind the cease-fire plan. Biden is calling time on the war — Netanyahu must seize this moment and stop the fighting.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. As Israel increasingly limits Hamas' ability to threaten Israel via its terror rockets, Hezbollah is attempting to fill the gap. Though Israel's campaign in Gaza continues to drag on, the military must eventually prioritize the situation on the Lebanese border. Hezbollah is far more powerful than Hamas, and Israel can't afford to have an Iranian proxy army sitting so comfortably on its border.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Though this deal, which is nearly identical to earlier proposals that Hamas has already agreed to, must go through, it's too little too late. Israel has massacred over 35K Palestinians in Gaza, yet it has taken months even to approach a deal due to Israeli intransigence. The only reason this war has continued is because the Biden administration has refused to reel Israel in.
• Pro-Iran narrative, as provided by Al Mayadeen English. Hezbollah and the regional resistance will only end their attacks when Israel's war in Gaza ends and it withdraws its forces. Indeed, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional war. Foreign powers believe they can dictate to Hezbollah how it deals with Israel's aggression and impose concessions regarding the status of Lebanon's southern border. However, Hezbollah has many tricks up its sleeve, and it's prepared to defend Lebanon from Israel's genocidal aggression.

Predictions