Israeli Defense Minister Tells Austin: No Choice But to Retaliate Against Iran

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Facts

  • Axios reported that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Sunday that Israel had no choice but to respond to Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend which saw Iran launch around 350 drones and missiles at Israel in response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus.1
  • Austin reportedly said that Israel must do everything it can to avoid escalation. US Pres. Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday that the US will not support any Israeli counterattack against Iran, according to a US official.1
  • Regional officials said that Iran had informed the US about its planned attack on Israel and given days of notice before it was launched. However, the US denied these claims, saying that Tehran did not warn Washington and Iran's goal was to inflict substantial damage.2
  • Israeli outlet Channel 12, without citing any specific sources, reported that, during a war cabinet meeting held on Monday to discuss Israel's response to the Iranian attack, the cabinet decided to hit back 'clearly and forcefully' against Iran but avoid a regional war or shattering the coalition that assisted in Israel's defense.3
  • As tensions continue, it was reported on Monday that four Israeli soldiers were injured by a bomb inside Lebanon, making it the first admitted entry into Lebanese territory by Israeli forces. Israel's military confirmed the casualties after Lebanon's Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, claimed it ambushed a group of Israeli soldiers after they crossed the border.4
  • Separately, Lebanese officials suggested on Monday that Israel's Mossad intelligence agency may have assassinated Mohammad Sarur, a US-sanctioned Lebanese citizen accused of facilitating Iranian financial support for Hamas. Sarur was found dead in the Lebanese mountain town of Beit Mery last week.5

Sources: 1Axios, 2Reuters, 3The Times of Israel, 4Guardian and 5Barrons.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. The US is doing everything it can to ensure that Israel deter military threats while also preventing regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always defend Israel's right to security. Nonetheless, it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Thankfully, Israel, with the assistance of the US and its regional allies, managed to effectively counter Iran's attack, and any further Israeli military actions are completely unnecessary.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and prevent Iran from achieving any symbolic or strategic victories in the wake of Oct. 7. Though Israel did not and does not want this war, Iranian meddling has pushed the region to the brink. Israel has made clear that Israel will not allow Iran's terror armies to hold positions on its borders, and, if Israel does not thoroughly respond to this escalation, Iran will only be more emboldened to attack.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Intercept. Once again, the media have taken the bait and looked over the fact that Israel is purposefully trying to drag the US into a war with Iran to distract from its daily massacres in Gaza. If Pres. Biden had not chosen to blindly follow Netanyahu into the abyss, this situation almost certainly could have been avoided. Israel has turned into a pariah state in the global community, and if the US wants to prevent the region from falling into chaos, it must end Israel's war on Gaza.
  • Pro-Iran narrative, as provided by Al Mayadeen English. Iran continues to demonstrate its capabilities and restraint, as the attack over the weekend will hopefully serve as a good wake-up call to Israel to end this series of escalations. Iran and its allies have been clear from day one that they do not want to see this war spiral into a regional conflict. Rather, Iran only seeks to end Israel's crimes in Gaza, to which it has been forced to respond. Israel made a mistake in believing that Iran would not respond to its provocations, and Tehran's leadership will continue to calculate its moves appropriately.

Predictions