Israeli Defense Minister: Hezbollah Successor 'Probably' Killed Last Week

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Facts

  • Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claimed Tuesday that Hashem Safieddine — the presumed successor to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah who was killed in an airstrike in September — was 'probably' killed in an airstrike last week, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel 'took out' Nasrallah's successors.[1][2]
  • Israeli troops reportedly entered the southern Lebanese border village of Maroun al-Ras this week, where they raised the Israeli flag, while Hezbollah claimed to have fired artillery and rockets at advancing Israeli forces near Labbouneh.[3][4]
  • A spokesperson for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, said that the current situation in Maroun al-Ras couldn't be verified but noted that Israeli forces had withdrawn from their positions close to where Irish peacekeepers are stationed.[5][6]
  • On Tuesday, Hezbollah Deputy Secretery General Naim Qassem said that the group supports efforts for a cease-fire led by Lebanese Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, without mentioning Gaza as a condition for a truce.[7]
  • Last week, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib claimed that Nasrallah had accepted a temporary cease-fire deal before his killing. US officials said more recently that the Biden admin. isn’t actively trying to revive the deal.[7]
  • Separately, the news site Ynet reported that unnamed Israeli officials denied that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar — who has reportedly been out of contact with mediators for weeks — had made contact with Qatari mediators regarding a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages.[8]

Sources: [1]Reuters, [2]Guardian, [3]Jerusalem Post, [4]LBCIV7 (a), [5]LBCIV7 (b), [6]Independent, [7]CNN and [8]Timesofisrael.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New York Times. Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to Hezbollah's daily terror attacks along its northern border. However, it is in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Israel has been incredibly patient regarding the situation in the north, however, after a year of daily terror attacks on Israeli civilians, Israel has been forced to deal with Hezbollah more aggressively. Indeed, Friday's strike on Nasrallah demonstrates that Israel has established new 'rules of engagement' that will prove to Hezbollah that its hubris will led to its destruction. Israel wants peace more than anyone, but it cannot allow Hezbollah and other Iran-backed terror groups to threaten its society in such an existential way.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel is bombing several countries in the Middle East, yet continues to play the victim. As it commits genocide in Gaza and works to destroy Lebanon — all in the name of 'remaking the Middle East' — it will only create more problems for itself. Indeed, Israel's aggression is only strengthening the resolve of its enemies and pushing the civilian population into their arms.
  • Narrative D, as provided by Almayadeen. Though Hezbollah has experienced painful losses in recent weeks, its command and control structures remain intact. The resistance is more than able to continue responding to Israeli aggression and has exacted a heavy price on invading Israeli forces. Nonetheless, Hezbollah has full confidence in efforts led by Nabih Berri to find a political solution.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by The Guardian. There's a 15% chance that state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.