Israel Warns of Rafah Assault by Ramadan

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Facts

  • Israel has warned that if Hamas doesn't release Israeli hostages by Mar. 10, the beginning of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, then it will invade the southern Gazan city of Rafah. Foreign Minister Benny Gantz said Gaza can 'celebrate Ramadan' if Hamas surrenders and releases the 'abductees.'1
  • This follows Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's statement that the military was already preparing to target the city of 1M people. While Israel hasn't offered specific plans, one defense official said they would have to screen each civilian before sending them north to tent cities; another said they could make a floating jetty to import humanitarian aid.2
  • While US Pres. Joe Biden has called on Israel to make a plan before entering Rafah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend said he would allow civilians to evacuate to safe areas. Netanyahu also suggested, '...there is a lot of space north of Rafah.'3
  • Meanwhile, Gantz over the weekend said Israel also plans to restrict access to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, which is home to the Al-Aqsa Mosque. While Hamas called the decision proof of Israel's 'intention to escalate its aggression,' Netanyahu's office said Monday it would allow 'freedom of worship within the limits of...security needs.'1
  • Elsewhere, Israel said it 'attacked weapons depots near Sidon' in southern Lebanon after locating an 'unmanned aerial vehicle from Hezbollah near Tiberias.' Lebanese media reported that the Israel strikes consisted of several airstrikes.4
  • Since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack that killed around 1.2K Israelis with 130 taken as hostages, Gazan health officials say that over 29K Palestinians have been killed in the resulting counterassault as of Monday.3

Sources: 1NBC, 2Reuters.com, 3wsj.com and 4Al Jazeera.

Narratives

  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. What Israel is currently doing to Palestine is nothing new. Going back to Israel's ethnic cleansing of Palestinians during the 1948 Nakba, Israel's goal has always been to displace and kill civilians through starvation and military assaults to achieve its goal of complete dominance over the region. Based on historical precedent, there is a tremendous concern for Rafah if Israel isn't told to stop.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Jerusalem Post. As far as historical precedent is concerned, Hamas has a long history of luring mass groups of Palestinians into tightly packed cities — this time Rafah — so that it can later blame Israel when civilians die in the crossfire. Both Israel and the Palestinian Authority have called for a cease-fire in exchange for a hostage release, but Hamas is hindering these efforts through its continued attacks and flagrant use of human shields.