Israel Warns of ‘All-Out War’ in Lebanon Against Hezbollah

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Facts

• The Israeli military said on Tuesday that it had approved plans to mount a ground assault into Lebanon. The statement came only hours after Lebanon's Hezbollah released drone footage of the Israeli city of Haifa showing civilian and military infrastructure.¹
• Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have slowly escalated since fighting erupted along the border shortly after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack. US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein was in Beirut on Tuesday to meet with Lebanese officials and try to de-escalate the situation.²
• Hochstein said that the fighting on the border 'has gone on for long enough,' adding that the situation can be resolved 'quickly and diplomatically.' Hochstein also called for 'an internationally mediated arrangement' to resolve the border clashes.³
• Israel has demanded that Hezbollah withdraw from the border, while the group has said that it will not halt attacks into northern Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza. The fighting has displaced tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border.⁴
• Meanwhile, as fighting continues on the Lebanese border and in Gaza, the Biden admin. rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent claims that the US is withholding weapons from Israel, saying that it didn't know 'what he is talking about.'⁵
• The US has withheld one shipment of weapons to Israel, which included 2000-pound bombs. The US has provided Israel with billions worth of weaponry.⁵

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²AL, ³The National, ⁴France 24 and ⁵Axios.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas' military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere. Nonetheless, it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate, and calm must be restored in the north and south.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Hezbollah's escalations on the border will soon need to be addressed with overwhelming military force. Though a full-blown war with Hezbollah would be painful on the home front, Israel must take this existential terrorist threat seriously. Hezbollah, which is far more dangerous than Hamas, is not deterred, and Israel will have to remove it from south Lebanon with force if an agreement or understanding is not reached.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. The Biden admin., increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal war. Regardless of the spin, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to effectively curb Israel's genocidal behavior — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Israel simply could not continue to wage war if the US was not providing it a blank cheque.
• Narrative D, as provided by Al Mayadeen English. Hezbollah and the regional resistance continue to demonstrate their military capabilities. Ultimately, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional conflict. However, Israel's genocidal actions and constant threats may indicate that a larger war is coming. Indeed, Hezbollah is ready to defend Lebanon.