Israel to Withdraw Some Troops from Gaza

Facts

• The Israeli military announced on Monday that it will start withdrawing thousands of its soldiers from Gaza, at least temporarily, citing the war's effects on Israel's economy. The move also comes amid pressure from the US to deescalate conflict due to the death toll in Gaza. A spokesman emphasized that this doesn't indicate any compromise on Israel’s intention to continue fighting until Hamas is destroyed. He also said that some soldiers may be called back later this year.¹
• Residents of Gaza City in the north reported on Monday that Israeli tanks began to withdraw from some districts, while residents in central Gaza reported that fighting continued unabated, with tanks pushing into al-Bureij and air strikes targeting al-Nusseirat, al-Maghazi, and the southern city of Khan Younis. Meanwhile, Hamas also fired rockets at Tel Aviv early Monday.²
• A US official reacted to the news of the partial withdrawal by suggesting that it indicated that the conflict would enter a less intense 'new phase' of the war. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to Israel later this week to continue discussions about this next stage, which American officials have made clear they expect to begin soon.³
• Israeli military officials also said that residents of some southern Israeli communities near Gaza can return to their homes. The communities were evacuated shortly after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack. Some residents have already returned home, but most are currently displaced. The communities nearest to Gaza will likely remain closed for the time being, as some are uninhabitable.⁴
• On Israel's border with Lebanon, low-intensity fighting with Hezbollah has continued. Israeli opposition MK Avigdor Liberman called for his country to reoccupy south Lebanon and push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, and said that Israel would have to occupy the south until a Lebanese government could 'exercise its sovereignty” in the region. Israel previously occupied south Lebanon from 1982 until 2000.⁵
• Gaza's health ministry reports that 22K people have so far been killed in Gaza, the majority of whom were women and children. The Oct. 7 attacks killed 1.2K Israelis and there are still over 100 hostages being held in Gaza by Hamas.⁶

Sources: ¹New York Times, ²Reuters, ³CNN, ⁴The Times of Israel (a), ⁵The Times of Israel (b) and ⁶Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. Though, of course, Israel has a right to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities, it must wage this war in a humane way. The number of civilians being killed will only galvanize Palestinians to oppose peace, pushing them into the arms of Hamas. A more thorough and surgical campaign is now needed to eliminate Hamas's leadership in Gaza, as Israel is losing global support.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Israel's strategy has gained control over large swaths of the Gaza Strip, and considering growing internal and external pressure on the Israeli government to wind down its combat operations, it is appropriate for its forces to reorient their military posture to a less intense phase of fighting. Despite this development, however, Hamas's military capabilities still must be eliminated so that the group can never launch a terrorist attack like Oct. 7 again.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip uninhabitable. Though the US — Israel's biggest ally — wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Predictions