Israel Strikes Hezbollah-Affiliated Banks in Lebanon

Facts

• Israel struck Al-Qard Al-Hassan bank branches across Lebanon late on Sunday, saying it was targeting Hezbollah's finances. Israel announced evacuation orders for the strikes, leading to scores of people fleeing their homes.^[1]
• Al-Qard Al-Hassan was established in 1983 and is estimated to have hundreds of thousands of clients. Deceased Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the financial institution was supported and protected by Hezbollah. The US sanctioned Al-Qard Al-Hassan in 2007.^[2]
• US special envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut on Monday to discuss ending the war with Lebanese officials, saying that UN Resolution 1701 — which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah — is no longer enough. He continued that a new mechanism to implement the resolution must be put in place.^[3]
• Axios reported on Monday that Israel told the US its conditions for a cease-fire in Lebanon included Israel having the ability to engage in 'active enforcement' to prevent Hezbollah from rearming or rebuilding its military infrastructure in South Lebanon. Israel also demanded that its air force could freely operate in Lebanese air space.^[4]
• Concurrently, US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Monday that negotiations for a cease-fire and the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza are not expected to resume soon, adding that the US had 'some initial conversations with our Israeli counterparts.'^[5]
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to arrive in Israel on Monday for his 11th trip to the region since the war began. Blinken reportedly will meet with Israeli leaders to discuss the possibility of a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon and how Gaza will be governed after the war.^[6]

Sources: ^[1]NBC, ^[2]Reuters, ^[3]AL, ^[4]Axios, ^[5]Timesofisrael and ^[6]New York Times.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by NBC. Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to the daily terror attacks it has seen since Oct. 7. However, it is in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Israel has been incredibly patient regarding the situation in the north, but, after a year of daily terror attacks on Israeli civilians, Israel has been forced to deal with Hezbollah more aggressively. Israel wants peace more than anyone, but it cannot allow Hezbollah and other Iran-backed terror groups to threaten its society in such an existential way.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel has escalated the situation in the region every chance it has gotten, with the US supporting it every step of the way. Indeed, Israel has demonstrated that it seeks to expand the genocidal campaign that began in Gaza to Lebanon. Though the US, the most powerful country in the world, has continued its charade that it wants de-escalation, the reality is the US fully supports Israel's crimes across the region. Hamas and Hezbollah may be weakened, but resistance to Israel's expansionist project is inevitable.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. There's a 14% chance that state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.