Israel Reacts to New Hezbollah Drone Footage

Facts

• After Lebanon's Hezbollah released drone footage on Wednesday of Israel's Ramat David base, just over 25 miles from the Lebanese border, the Israeli military said that the drone had only taken photos and the base's operations were not impacted.¹
• The footage was the third in a series of videos released by Hezbollah depicting Israeli bases, with the group saying that it has sought to demonstrate how far its surveillance of Israel has reached.²
• Clashes along the Lebanese border began shortly after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack and have displaced tens of thousands of civilians on both sides. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) said that there have been 7,491 cross-border attacks as of July 5, with the vast majority being Israeli strikes in Lebanon.³
• In Gaza, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the US Congress, fighting continued, with Israeli forces pushing into Khan Younis and the eastern part of al-Mawasi. Gaza's health ministry reported that 55 Palestinians were killed in the last 24 hours.⁴
• Regarding the health ministry's casualty figures, which Israel has disputed, Airwars released a report on Wednesday claiming that health authorities in Gaza had, overall, accurately reported casualties in the first 17 days of the war, the period on which it focused.⁵
• Using open-source monitoring to independently identify nearly 3K civilian fatalities, Airwars argued that the health ministry's figures, though becoming less reliable over time due to the war's destruction of Gaza's health infrastructure, 'are broadly reliable.'⁵

Sources: ¹Jerusalem Post, ²Alarabiya, ³BBC News, ⁴Guardian and ⁵Airwars.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Hezbollah's escalations on the border will soon need to be addressed with overwhelming military force. Though a war full-blown war with Hezbollah would be painful on the home front, Israel must take this existential threat seriously. Hezbollah is not deterred, and Israel will have to remove it from south Lebanon with force if an agreement or understanding is not reached.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. The Biden admin., increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal war. Regardless of the spin, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to effectively curb Israel's genocidal behavior — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Israel simply could not continue to wage war if the US was not providing it a blank cheque.
• Narrative D, as provided by Al Mayadeen English. Hezbollah and the regional resistance continue to demonstrate their military capabilities. Ultimately, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional conflict. However, Israel's genocidal actions and constant threats may indicate that a larger war is coming. Indeed, Hezbollah is ready to defend Lebanon.