Israel, Qatar Agree on Medicine Delivery for Gaza Hostages

Facts

• Israel announced that it had made an agreement with Qatar on Friday that will allow the delivery of medicines to hostages held by Hamas in Gaza 'in the next few days.' Some of the hostages are elderly and have chronic illnesses, and the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which represents the families of the hostages, said it wanted 'visual proof' that the medications had been delivered to the hostages. The hostages' families petitioned the International Committee of the Red Cross to visit the hostages to deliver medicine and inspect their conditions, but the Red Cross has said Hamas has refused this request.¹
• Meanwhile, Israel on Friday responded to South Africa's case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague that accuses Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. Israel's legal team argued that it was merely defending itself and it was Hamas that was genocidal, calling for the court to dismiss the case as groundless and reject South Africa's request to order it to halt its military operations in Gaza.²
• As part of its argument, the Israeli legal team presented footage from Hamas's Oct. 7 attack, saying that the case against Israel only served to prevent it from defending itself against Hamas's assault. Israel presented all the alleged steps it says have prevented higher civilian casualties, and that 'random quotes' do not represent Israeli policy.³
• The New York Times reported on Friday that the CIA has been collecting information on senior Hamas leaders and the location of hostages in Gaza and then sending that intelligence to Israel. An anonymous official said that the CIA's task force — which was established shortly after Hamas's Oct. 7 attack — had found information on Hamas’s top leaders but did not give details. Israel has not killed or captured any of the most senior leaders of Hamas in Gaza as of yet.⁴
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday after completing his diplomatic tour across the region that Middle Eastern leaders had a newfound desire to discuss plans for Gaza after the war ends. Blinken said that in past meetings leaders had a 'reluctance' to discuss 'the day after issues and long-term stability and security on a regional basis' but are now far more open to it. Blinken also indicated optimism that the war would not escalate into a full-blown regional conflict.⁵
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed over 23K people in the Gaza Strip, the majority of whom were women and children. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at over1.1K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip).⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters (a), ²Reuters (b), ³Associated Press, ⁴New York Times, ⁵ABC News and ⁶Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
• Narrative D, as provided by Al Mayadeen. Hezbollah will deal with Israel's belligerent and aggressive behavior at a time it deems most advantageous, as the Lebanese resistance does not just react to security incidents but makes painstaking calculations to both deter Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid an unnecessary and destructive conflict. Israel's leadership should keep in mind that Hezbollah is more than ready for an all-out war and can inflict serious losses. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond.

Predictions