Israel, Hamas Considering Larger Deal

Facts

• Qatari-mediated negotiations between Israel and Hamas to extend the temporary truce that paused major hostilities last week are ongoing as the end of the truce looms; Israeli officials confirmed that another two-day extension was on the table, but that it had not yet been confirmed. On Tuesday, spy chiefs from Israel’s Mossad and the US CIA were in Qatar to 'build on the progress of the extended humanitarian pause agreement and to initiate further discussions about the next phase of a potential deal.'¹
• The new agreement may involve Hamas releasing men or military personnel, as all other previous deals have only pertained to women and children. An Israeli spokesman said 146 Israelis and 15 foreign nationals remain in Gaza and added that 'children were serially abused' while held captive.²
• A senior US official said that the White House was warning Israel not to launch offensive operations in the south of Gaza like it had undertaken in the north due to humanitarian concerns, saying that such an attack would be 'beyond the capacity of any humanitarian support network, however reinforced, however robust, to be able to cope with.”³
• Israel has continually vowed that it will renew its offensive once the truce with Hamas ends, with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant saying that Israeli forces will use “the same amount of power and more” across the 'entire' Gaza Strip. The Israeli military has already dropped leaflets over south Gaza calling for the strip's 2M civilians to flee to a small strip along the coast — a space approximately the size of Los Angeles’s LAX airport.³
• In less than a week, Israel launched another large-scale raid into Jenin and its neighboring refugee camp. A spokesman for the Palestinian Red Crescent Society in Jenin said that Israeli forces “surrounded all three major hospitals in Jenin,' searching ambulances as they came and went, leading to the deaths of two Palestinians. Earlier this month, Israeli forces killed 14 Palestinians in a raid into Jenin, and five were killed over the weekend.⁴
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has left almost 15K people — the majority of whom were women and children — in the Gaza Strip dead, while the official Israeli death toll stands at 1.2K people.⁵

Sources: ¹The Guardian, ²Sky News, ³The Telegraph, ⁴CNN and ⁵Axios.

Narratives

• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Jerusalem Post. While freeing hostages is of the utmost importance, Israel must not succumb to unfair international pressure. Hamas has a history of forcing uneven deals, and the Israeli war cabinet made the right decision by weighing its options before accepting this temporary pause. It should remain clear, however, that Israel's ultimate goal is to eliminate Hamas from the Gaza Strip, and Jerusalem will continue to work toward this end even if that necessitates a resumption of conflict.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. The Israeli military has inflicted disproportionate harm on the civilians of Gaza as opposed to on Hamas itself, and further assaults could lead to the deaths of many more. Israel has made a wise choice to bring its citizens home immediately through this temporary ceasefire, which should be extended. This will also see much-needed aid reach Gaza, where an utter humanitarian cataclysm has unfolded.

Predictions