Israel Election: Netanyahu Eyes Comeback
Israelis headed to the polls on Tuesday to elect the parliament and decide the next Prime Minister, amid continuing political deadlock. Exit polls indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc has won a majority.
Facts
- Israelis headed to the polls on Tuesday to elect the parliament and decide the next Prime Minister, amid continuing political deadlock. Exit polls indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc has won a majority.
- Netanyahu's Likud party has not yet performed as well as anticipated, but support has surged for his new right-wing allies, the Religious Zionists — and what appears to be a poor showing for two pro-Arab rights parties and the left-wing Meretz party — making Netanyahu the most likely candidate to be able to form a government.
- Netanyahu has cultivated a strong following among Israel's right-wing, however, some factions oppose him. Those who he has promised to appoint to key cabinet posts include Itamar Ben-Gvir — a politician previously convicted for backing terrorism through his calls for Arabs to be expelled.
- His main contenders for premiership are caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid — leader of the Yesh Atid party — and Defense Minister Benny Gantz — leader of the National Unity Party. Each of the rivals could head a broad coalition comprising Israel's left, center, and Arab parties.
- Polling published on Friday indicated that Netanyahu could come just one seat short of an outright majority, as opponents rally against him.
- Netanyahu's political ambitions are still complicated, as he's in a prominent criminal trial on charges of bribery, fraud, and other allegations. Reestablishing a hold on power will also require him to build coalitions with controversial politicians.
Sources: BBC News, Jerusalem Post, Guardian, NPR Online News, and FOX News.
Narratives
- Left narrative, as provided by Haaretz. Netanyahu's potential return to power is a sad day for Israel. Besides his open bigotry against the Arab community, he's a deeply corrupt politician that has constantly assaulted Israeli institutions and imperiled democracy while in office. Indeed the "government of change" had its problems, but allowing a far-right ultranationalist bloc comprising Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir to form Israel's new government would be far more dangerous.
- Right narrative, as provided by Times of Israel. Though elements of Netanyahu's potential coalition may be somewhat unsavory, his victory is a strong message to hostile actors that Israel will not roll over to terrorist demands. The corruption charges against him are, at best, substantially overstated and, at worst, a criminal endeavor against a former PM. He represents strength in the face of terror, while politicians such as Yair Lapid represent weakness — especially considering the terrible deal he recently made with Lebanon.
- Pro-Palestine, as provided by Al Jazeera. Israeli "democracy" is farcical considering the millions of Palestinians living under military occupation have no say in who will determine the level of oppression they face daily. How can Israel claim to be a democracy when it rules over 15M people between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, half of whom are not Jewish and most of whom can’t vote in Israel? Simply put, an apartheid state cannot be a democracy.
Predictions
Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections?
Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.
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