Israel Captures Gaza's Rafah Crossing

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Facts

• Israeli forces captured Gaza's Rafah Crossing early on Tuesday after calling for the evacuation of eastern Rafah on Monday. After the evacuation orders were given, Hamas announced that it would accept a cease-fire proposal, but Israel said it did not fulfill its core demands.¹
• The UN and other international agencies said that the closing of the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossings effectively cut Gaza off from outside aid. Over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge in Rafah, which is also a crucial logistics point for aid delivery. Hamas accused Israel of trying to undermine cease-fire talks.²
• The recent developments have also fueled tensions between the US and Israel, with Axios reporting that Israeli officials believe that Israel 'got played' by the US, accusing it of not being transparent with Israel regarding changes to the cease-fire proposal. In contrast, a US official said, 'There have been no surprises.'³
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Hamas' acceptance of a cease-fire proposal was 'meant to sabotage the entry of our forces into Rafah.' Netanyahu argued that Hamas' offer was 'very far from Israel’s vital demands.'⁴
• Netanyahu went on to say that capturing the Rafah Crossing was 'a very important step' toward destroying Hamas' remaining military and administrative capabilities. Netanyahu also said that Israel's negotiating team in Cairo would 'stand firmly' on Israel's demands.⁴
• Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on Tuesday that there will be no cease-fire if Israel continues to advance in Rafah. Hamdan also said that the Rafah Crossing 'was and will remain a purely Egyptian-Palestinian crossing.'⁵

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Reuters (a), ³Axios, ⁴The Times of Israel and ⁵Reuters (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Politco. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand and must be remedied. Netanyahu must keep his promises, and the US has been clear regarding its position on Rafah.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by jpost.com. Israel has reached a decisive point in this conflict. If Israel gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to the nation's enemies that it's weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7., which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. The most consistent obstacle in these negotiations has been Netanyahu and his far-right government. If Netanyahu wasn't hellbent on salvaging his political career and if the Biden admin. wasn't so weak, perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, the ball is in Israel's court, and everything must be done to ensure the end of this brutal war on Gaza.

Predictions