Israel and Hezbollah Accuse Each Other of Cease-fire Violations

Facts

  • An Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire appeared to hold into its third day on Friday. While no new violations were reported overnight, Israel and Hezbollah traded blame for a number of incidents over the past two days.[1][2]
  • The 60-day agreement, brokered by the US and France, went into effect on Wednesday morning.[3]
  • Under the terms of the deal, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw from southern Lebanon within the 60-day transition period, while the Lebanese Army will deploy some 5K troops south of the Litani River, including at 33 outposts on the border with Israel. Hezbollah, meanwhile, was banned from operating south of the river.[4]
  • After the deal was struck, the IDF and Lebanese Army warned displaced residents of southern Lebanon against immediately returning until the IDF had completely withdrawn.[5]
  • This appeared to be at the root of disagreements, with Israel stating Thursday that it opened fire at "suspects" in the southern zone, stating they had breached the conditions of the cease-fire. Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah lawmaker, said attacks targeted civilians that were returning home.[3]
  • Separately, Israel launched two airstrikes on Thursday. The IDF said one struck two Hezbollah operatives at a site in southern Lebanon that had been used in rocket attacks on Israel. The other attack struck what the IDF said was a Hezbollah weapons depot. According to local reports, they struck Baysariyah, outside of the restricted zone.[3][6]

Sources: [1]Middle East Monitor, [2]Al Jazeera, [3]Reuters, [4]The Times of Israel (a), [5]FOX News and [6]The Times of Israel (b).

Narratives

  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Times of Israel. After a lot of achievements and hard work in Lebanon, Hezbollah was severely weakened and forced to accept this agreement that will keep its operatives from Israel's borders. Nonetheless, Israel remains on guard for any violations of the cease-fire agreement and will swiftly respond to them.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by The Guardian. While this shaky peace deal may at least bring some respite from destruction and bloodshed in southern Lebanon, the reality is that Israel's military will now refocus its efforts on the Gaza war which it has fought concurrently. The Palestinians in Gaza, who are already facing a worse humanitarian crisis than the Lebanese, will now feel further devastation.

Predictions