Iraq, US Begin Formal Talks on Anti-IS Coalition Future

Facts

• Military officials from the US-led international coalition formed to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and their local counterparts held a first round of formal talks on Saturday to discuss the future of the decade-old mission, with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani claiming this is the first step to ending it.¹
• According to an Iraqi statement, a timeline to replace the mission with a bilateral security partnership will be decided after the US-Iraq Higher Military Commission reviews operational and environmental requirements, the strengthening of Iraqi security forces, and the threat posed by IS.²
• This comes as US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed on Thursday that the commission, which Baghdad and Washington agreed to form last summer, would launch in the 'coming days' amid public calls from the Iraqi government for foreign troops to be withdrawn from its territory.³
• Yet, the review is expected to take at least several months, with no plans for an immediate withdrawal as the US reportedly fears that this could embolden Iran and IS. American troops, which had previously been in Iraq between 2003 and 2011, returned to the Arab country in 2014 to provide training and conduct operations against the militant group.⁴
• Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, military bases hosting the 2.5K US troops stationed in Iraq have been targeted no less than 60 times. Reuters reported, citing sources, that America is now willing to negotiate a potential withdrawal after determining that the status quo would lead to 'steady escalation.'⁵
• Meanwhile, the Iran-aligned Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility on Saturday for three attacks on two US bases in Syria — Conoco and the Green Village — while the news outlet Al Mayadeen reported a drone attack on the al-Asad base in western Iraq.⁶

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Bloomberg, ³CNN, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵Middle East Eye and ⁶Al Mayadeen.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. Public calls for American troops to leave the country are merely an attempt from the Iraqi government to appease domestic discontent over recent US strikes, with al-Sudani privately acknowledging his willingness to keep US forces in Iraq. As for the US, its military footprint in Iraq is critical not only to prevent a resurgence of IS, but also to counter Iran's influence and to prevent the Gaza war from spreading.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Reason.com. Similar to Trump, Biden has failed his duty as commander in chief as troops currently stationed in Iraq and Syria have no clear, attainable mission, instead serving as lightning rods to Iran-backed militia attacks because some bureaucrats in Washington believe that their presence annoys Tehran — and that risking their lives is worth it. It's about time for these servicemen to be brought home

Predictions