Iran Reportedly Presents its First Hypersonic Ballistic Missile

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Facts

• On Tuesday, Iran's state media unveiled pictures of the 'Fattah' — the state's first domestically-made hypersonic ballistic missile. It was unveiled at a ceremony attended by President Ebrahim Raisi and commanders of the Revolutionary Guards Corps.¹
• The name, which approximately translates to 'the opener,' was chosen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the missile being claimed to have a range of 1.4K km (870 mi) and reach a speed of Mach 15.²
• Raisi stated that, with its creation, a 'deterrent power' had been formed, with such power being an 'anchor of lasting security and peace' for the region. Furthermore, Amir Ali Hajizadeh — head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard's aerospace program — claimed that no system existed that could 'rival or counter this missile.'³
• Only four other countries in the world assert they have such a weapon. While there has been no evidence of a successful launch of the missile by Iran, Hajizadeh commented that a ground test had occurred in which the rocket's motor was placed on a stand and fired to check its correct functioning.⁴
• In response to the unveiling, the US Treasury Department has sanctioned seven individuals and six entities in Iran, China, and Hong Kong for their role in the creation of the missile, stating the agency would continue to target those that supported Tehran's ballistic missile production as well as other programs.⁵
• Ever since Washington pulled out of a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, choosing to impose renewed sanctions on the state, Iran has suspended its previously-agreed restrictions on nuclear activities, while also limiting the ability of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor its actions.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Al Jazeera, ³Abc news, ⁴Guardian, ⁵Al arabiya english and ⁶Daily sabah.

Narratives

• Pro-Iran narrative, as provided by Tehran times. While, ironically, America's withdrawal from the 2015 agreement was intended to curb Iran's missile program, instead Tehran has achieved a historic feat in joining an exclusive international military elite. The Fattah missile is a response to threats from both Israel and the US, and because Iran's military technology continues to make significant progress, hostile actors will now think twice about inflicting aggression.
• Anti-Iran narrative, as provided by Iran international. Available facts concerning Iran's latest missile cast doubt on the state's claim of success. With current technology producing similar missiles of a speed of around 5-8 Machs, Iran's claim of 15 Machs seems like an exaggeration. In addition, no information was given concerning whether such a speed would be during initial phases, or rather when reaching a target. With many Russian claims of a hypersonic weapon being proved wrong during the Ukraine war, Iran's unveiling should be taken with a generous pinch of salt.

Predictions