Iran: Pres. Raisi Threatens No Nuclear Deal If IAEA Inquiry Continues

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Facts

  • On Mon. Iran's Pres. Ebrahim Raisi warned that an agreement to revive the 2015 nuclear deal will only be finalized if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ends its yearslong inquiry into man-made uranium particles that were found at undeclared sites in the country.
  • This comes as Tehran is assessing a so far undisclosed US counterproposal to restore the agreement, suggesting that the closure of the IAEA probe is a key issue to Iran as it would prevent the US from using it to leave the deal again.
  • Israeli media on Sun. published unsourced reports that a draft proposal was submitted by the EU to Tehran in July to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It would gradually end uranium enrichment but allow Iran to retain its stockpile while sanctions are lifted and prisoners are released.
  • A recent IAEA count pegged Iran for stockpiling 3,800 kg of enriched uranium. Iran is also reportedly able to enrich the material to up to 60% purity, a record-high level for the country. Under the scrapped 2015 nuclear agreement, Iran agreed to stockpile just 300 kg and enrich it up to just 3.67% purity.
  • During a press conference marking Raisi's first year in office on Mon., he denied any intention to meet with US Pres. Joe Biden during the UN General Assembly in September.
  • He also threatened Israel, claiming that Tehran would destroy "the Zionist regime" if attacks against Iranian nuclear sites and scientists, which Iran blame on Israel, continue.

Sources: Voa, Al-Monitor, Times Of Israel, Washington Post, Al Jazeera, and Independent.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. We only reached this point of instability because of the damage Trump caused by pulling the US out of the 2015 nuclear deal. Biden is doing what he can to repair these diplomatic ties, and dealing from a diminished position because of Iran's accomplishments in the years since the deal was scrapped.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by New York Post. This is a chance for Biden to avoid a terrible new nuclear deal with Iran. A fresh agreement would allow Iran to continue funding terrorism, as well as benefit Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin because of carveouts for his country's energy projects with Tehran. A new deal would be a disaster.

Predictions