Iran Plans to Triple Military Budget

Facts

• The Masoud Pezeshkian administration has submitted a proposal to parliament to triple Iran's military spending — a 200% rise — in the budget for the next fiscal year, which begins on March 15.^[1][2]
• This comes after the Israeli military killed four Iranian soldiers in long-anticipated retaliatory strikes on Saturday. On Monday, Iran pledged to 'use all available tools' to respond to the attack.^[3][4]
• Both countries have traded missile salvos for months, as Iran supports Hamas and Hezbollah — militant groups that have been battling Israel in Gaza and Lebanon, respectively.^[4][2]
• Iran's defense spending for this fiscal year was estimated at about $8B, with approximately half of that allocated to military institutions and nearly a quarter to purchasing and developing weapons.^[5]
• In 2023 and 2022, the military budget was reportedly around $10.3B and $6.85B, respectively, notably lower than that of other powers in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Turkey.^[3][2]
• This difference stems from the depreciation of the local currency, the Iranian rial, which hit near all-time lows in the wake of the Israeli attack.^[6]

Sources: ^[1]Tasnim News Agency, ^[2]Al Jazeera, ^[3]Tehran Times, ^[4]Reuters, ^[5]Financial Times and ^[6]Iran International.

Narratives

• Pro-Iran narrative, as provided by Mehr News Agency. Israel has expanded its war of aggression in the Middle East to include Iranian territory, so it's pressing that Tehran increases its military budget to address the country's defense needs. Iran has no interest in war but will never give up its legitimate right to self-defense.
• Anti-Iran narrative, as provided by Red State and Jerusalem Post. This announcement, if confirmed, is extremely concerning, as an increase in the Iranian military expenditure is likely to prompt an arms race in the Middle East — or at least between Iran and Israel, as Tehran has sought reconciliation with other regional powers.

Predictions