Iran Holds Presidential Run-Off Election

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Facts

• Iranians on Friday voted in a run-off election to decide the successor to the late President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month, after no candidate won a majority in the first round of voting a week ago.¹
• Up for election are Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator considered to represent the establishment, and Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon and reformist MP who reportedly called for a more moderate foreign policy and easing some of Iran's social restrictions.²
• Both candidates vowed to boost the economy, reportedly battered by mismanagement, corruption, and US sanctions. The run-off follows a historically low turnout in the presidential election's first round on June 28, with over 60% of voters abstaining.³
• On Wednesday, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for a higher turnout in the run-off vote, saying that the first-round participation was 'not as expected' but that this was not to be considered an act 'against the system.'⁴
• According to a leading Iranian polling institute, Peshkian is around 5% ahead of his conservative rival after two presidential debates. Voter turnout is estimated at 45%, which is higher than in the first round of voting.⁵
• The voting comes amid rising regional tensions over the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which have received support from Iran, along with Western pressure on Iran over its nuclear program. The final result is set to be announced by Saturday.⁶

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²USA Today, ³Reuters, ⁴France 24, ⁵Middle East Monitor and ⁶South China Morning Post.

Narratives

• Anti-Iran narrative, as provided by Voice of America. Most Iranians boycotted the first round of voting, and a similarly low turnout is expected from the angry electorate in the run-off. Khamenei may have been quite successful in feeding the illusion of competition between the ultra-conservative Jalili and the alleged moderate 'reformist' Pezeshkian abroad, but Iranians know that both are loyal to the theocratic system. After all, power in Iran is completely controlled by the supreme leader, and the people no longer believe in the regime's ability to reform.
• Pro-Iran narrative, as provided by almayadeen.net. It's remarkable that the West, with its politically disillusioned people, dares to criticize the low voter turnout in Iran's first round of elections. Moreover, contrary to claims of anti-Iranian propaganda, there are early signs of a higher turnout in the run-off vote, with Iranians well aware of the foreign forces responsible for their difficult economic situation. Both candidates and the nation are united in their patriotism and will never allow Iran's enemies to determine the country's future.

Predictions