Iran Holds Parliamentary Election

Facts

• Iran held its elections for 290 members of parliament as well as 88 members of the Assembly of Experts, who are tasked with selecting the Islamic Republic's supreme leader.¹
• The names of candidates were announced two weeks before the election, with campaigns beginning 10 days before. Candidates, of which there were 15.2K this year running for Parliament, must be approved by the Guardian Council to run. Most came from conservative parties.²
• Over 61M of the country's 87M people were eligible to vote, though opinion polls found 27.9% would 'definitely participate' while 36% said there was 'no way' they would.³
• Iran's last parliamentary election was held in 2020 during the COVID pandemic. It saw the lowest participation rate since the 1979 Islamic Revolution at 42.57%.⁴
• Due to voter turnout being 12% after eight hours and 27% after ten hours, the government extended voting by two hours. This trend continues a decline in turnout following over 40% in the last election and 62% in 2016. This year, many reformist candidates were also disqualified.⁵
• Starting at midnight Saturday (local time), the Ministry of Interior will begin releasing preliminary results, which will also give a glimpse of how the Assembly of Experts vote will turn out.¹

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²The New York Times, ³CNN, ⁴Al-Monitor and ⁵The Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-Iran narrative, as provided by Tehran Times. Not only have Iranians at home come out to participate in their country's democratic systems, but a high number cast their ballots from abroad. Despite Western efforts to encourage citizens to stay home, the Iranian people believe in their country and are willing to do what it takes to vote — even from consulates and embassies in foreign countries.
• Anti-Iran narrative, as provided by IranWire. Iran's election integrity issues are on full display. First, Supreme Leader Khamenei cast his vote early in the day so that everyone else knows who to vote for. The country also rolled back its ID requirements, leaving ample opportunity for fraudsters to cast multiple ballots. And, if that wasn't enough, the regime printed millions of unnecessary extra ballots, which will also give it the ability to ensure the success of its preferred candidates.

Predictions