Iowa GOP Poll: Haley Surges to Second Place Tie

Facts

• According to an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is now tied for second in polling at the party's Iowa caucus with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.¹
• While October's polling sees both DeSantis and Haley sitting at 16% — a decrease of 3% and an increase of 10% respectively compared to a poll conducted in August — former president Donald Trump remains the first-choice candidate by likely Iowa caucusgoers with a commanding 43%.²
• The 27-point gap between Trump and second place candidates reflects a four-point increase in his lead since August. Following Haley and DeSantis sits Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC.) with 7%, while former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy both received 4%.³
• The poll also found that 27% saw DeSantis as their second choice, with 25% 'actively considering' the Florida governor, while 17% saw Haley as their alternative candidate. 41% of total survey responders claimed their mind was made up on their first-choice candidate.⁴
• Data was taken before former Vice President Mike Pence announced he was to pull out of the presidential race. Pence had dropped from 6% to 2% between August and October.⁵
• The data was collected from 404 likely Iowa caucus attendees between Oct. 22-26, with a margin for error of +/- 4.9%.⁶

Sources: ¹Axios.com, ²NBC, ³Politico, ⁴The hill, ⁵Us news & world report and ⁶Reuters.

Narratives

• Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by Politico. In the underdog race to pose a credible, if unlikely, bid to beat Trump to the Republican nomination, it seems that Haley has taken the mantle. While other GOP nominees have had their moments in the headlines, it's Haley who has slowly but surely secured a strong base with voters after two commendable debate appearances. Her surge in Iowa is notable and doesn't even reflect the news that Mike Pence has dropped out. Trump should take note.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by The last refuge. Wall Street Republicans are only backing Haley as DeSantis' polling numbers have embarrassingly diminished. However, as the data shows, Trump’s followers are not sheep and the candidacy appears to be all but secured. Nikki Haley may be working the 'never Trumper' donor circuit but the former president is locking the GOP nomination down in historic fashion.

Predictions