Indonesia: Subianto Claims Victory in Presidential Election

Facts

• Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has claimed victory in Wednesday's presidential election as unofficial results with about 85% of the ballots counted show him leading the race with nearly 60% of the vote.¹
• If official results next month confirm these preliminary counts from pollsters, the 72-year-old is likely to win the presidency outright. A candidate must secure over 50% of the votes as well as at least 20% of the vote in over half of Indonesia's provinces to avoid a run-off.²
• A military commander during the Suharto regime, Subianto is in a three-way race against former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan and former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo to succeed Pres. Joko Widodo after he served two full terms.³
• Anies and Ganjar, who previously told supporters to wait for the official vote tally, haven't conceded defeat so far. While there has been no reaction from the latter to Subianto declaring victory, Anies reasserted that he will wait until the official results.⁴
• Indonesia reportedly has the biggest one-day election in the world, with more than 200M people eligible to vote in polling stations across the archipelago's thousands of islands. Logistical problems due to rain were reported in Jakarta but voting closed with no major problems.⁵
• The next president will be inaugurated on Oct. 20 to lead the world's fourth most populous country and will appoint a Cabinet within two weeks.⁶

Sources: ¹CNN, ²The Jakarta Post, ³BBC News, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵Guardian and ⁶Associated Press.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Intercept. Gen. Prabowo Subianto, a longtime US protégé who managed to gain support from his country's political elites ahead of this presidential race, has long expressed support for authoritarian military rule. Therefore, his likely election victory represents nothing but the end of democracy in Indonesia.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Foreign Affairs. Prabowo Subianto indeed has a troubled record regarding human rights and his own short temper but sensationalism over his possible presidency is unfounded. Those supporting his presidential bid are not discontent with democracy — quite the contrary. In fact, Subianto represents continuity and an implicit faith in democratic institutions.

Predictions