India: Rahul Gandhi Reinstated as MP

Facts

• India's senior opposition leader Rahul Gandhi returned to Parliament on Monday, after India's Supreme Court overturned his disqualification as a member of Parliament last week.¹
• On Friday, Gandhi's status as an MP — which he lost in March — was restored after the top court suspended his conviction in a 2019 criminal defamation case over remarks he made about the PM Narendra Modi's surname.²
• Gandhi is portrayed as one of Modi's main challengers in the 2024 elections, but he could be barred from running for office as a court in Gujarat is yet to rule on the case's merits.³
• For now, his reinstatement could boost the opposition's efforts to corner the PM ahead of a no-confidence vote this week, prompted by deadly ethnic violence in the northeastern state of Manipur.⁴
• Though the opposition cannot win the vote in Parliament, where the ruling BJP has an overwhelming majority, it is expected they will force Modi to speak on the sensitive matter, which he has so far avoided discussing publicly.⁵
• Over 150 people have died and more than 50K have been displaced since ethnic clashes between Kukis and Meiteis broke out in Manipur in May, reportedly due to the controversial implementation of affirmative action in the state.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²BBC News, ³Bloomberg, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵Guardian, and ⁶Associated Press.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by NDTV. Gandhi's return to Parliament must be celebrated above all as a victory for truth, mainly as a marks the exposure of a backfiring conspiracy being peddled by the ruling party. Since his suspension, a once fractured opposition has joined efforts to form a strong camp to challenge the BJP in the upcoming general elections.
• Narrative B, as provided by TimesNow. Though India's opposition figures have called Gandhi's reinstatement another big win ahead of the 2024 elections, it's uncertain what the political consequences will be for the INDIA alliance. While his Congress Party wants a Modi-Gandhi battle for the premiership, many parties within the coalition would reportedly be more comfortable unifying if Gandhi remained suspended.

Predictions