IMF Warns AI Could Affect 40% of Jobs, Worsen Inequality

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Facts

  • According to a new analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, artificial intelligence (AI) will hit roughly four in 10 jobs worldwide and most likely deepen overall inequality among countries.1
  • Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva detailed on Sunday that as much as three in five jobs could be affected in more advanced economies partly due to the higher proportion of white-collar jobs, adding that only around half of those may benefit from the technological revolution.2
  • Comparatively, AI exposure has been estimated to be at 40% in emerging market economies, including China, India, and Brazil, and 26% for low-income nations. Highly exposed jobs with 'low complementarity,' such as in telemarketing, are those that have a higher potential for being taken by AI.3
  • Georgieva further argued that, unlike previous technological revolutions, AI will have the ability to impact high-skilled jobs. Regarding inequality, she stressed that developed economies may adopt quicker than developing nations while younger workers may adapt easier than older workers.4
  • Given the reported troubling trend, the IMF urged policymakers to implement extensive social safety nets and provide job retraining programs for vulnerable workers to prevent resulting social tensions.4
  • This comes as Goldman Sachs previously warned that generative AI could impact up to 300M jobs globally, though recognizing that the technology could improve labor productivity and growth and even boost gross domestic product (GDP) by 7%.5

Sources: 1BBC News, 2CNN, 3Guardian, 4Independent and 5CNBC.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Newsweek. It's a matter of fact that there's no way back to the pre-AI era and some human jobs will be destroyed, especially as companies want to maximize efficiency. However, this must not come at the expense of the livelihood of hundreds of millions of workers. As recommended by institutions like the IMF, governments worldwide must implement regulations to ensure that integrating this technology won't cause unemployment surges.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by The Epoch Times. Essentially, the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market is no different than that of computers, light bulbs, and automobiles. Whenever a more efficient technology arises to benefit mankind, some jobs will be rendered obsolete and workers will be displaced — and that's exactly the evolutionary process of capitalism. Some justified security concerns aside, AI and its impact on the global workforce must celebrated.

Predictions