IEA: Global Gas Market to Remain Tight into 2023

Facts

• According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its quarterly gas market report on Monday, gas markets will likely remain tight well into 2023 as Russia restricts supplies and Europe cuts usage amid high prices and energy saving measures.
• With worldwide natural gas consumption having tightened since 2021, and Europe seen a record decline of 10% this year, consumption is expected to decline by 0.8% globally in 2022, and only rise 0.4% in 2023.
• The EU has urged a voluntary reduction in gas demand by 15% compared to its five-year average, with the IEA warning that if European demand isn't curbed and Russia completely halts its exports in November, the continent's storage sites could see a critically low level of 5% by February.
• Europe has offset its decline in Russian imports by importing liquified natural gas (LNG) and using alternative pipeline supplies from producers such as Norway, though the IEA expects European imports to still increase by more than 60B cubic meters, keeping markets under pressure for the short to medium term.
• The IEA also recommended Europeans reduce energy use by 13% this winter - such as by turning the thermostat down by 1 degree and adjusting boiler temperatures - with the EU on Friday agreeing to mandate an electricity reduction of 5% during peak price hours.
• The gas crisis has also damaged poorer regions, with Bangladesh now facing widespread blackouts and Pakistan experiencing rolling blackouts, forcing the nation to introduce shorter working hours for shops and factories.See Fewer Facts

Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Dailysabah.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Foreign Policy. While backing away from its reliance on Russian oil may hurt the European economy in the short term, Europe will neither get poorer nor freeze this winter. What the current geopolitical outlook proves is that the EU can no longer rely on Russia, but with Europe's recent energy-saving practices and its transition to green energy, the continent will not only survive this energy war but come out on top in the end.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Geopolitcs & Empire. What the corporate elites and their friends in government seem to have ignored is the societal backlash they'll receive if this energy crisis continues. Europeans are sure to face life-threatening energy shortages this winter, with many likely to lose their jobs and much of their savings, which risks leading to public backlash on a revolutionary scale. The average taxpayer knows they'll be left on the hook for these price increases, and they're already showing a willingness not to pay.