ICJ Pres. Nawaf Salam to Become Lebanon's Next Prime Minister

Facts

• Top International Court of Justice (ICJ) judge Nawaf Salam is set to become Lebanon's next prime minister, replacing Najib Mikati. Salam will be expected to soon form a new government, as Lebanon has been run by a caretaker administration for over two years.^[1][2]
• Salam's appointment comes only days after the Lebanese Parliament elected Joseph Aoun as the country's new president. Due to Lebanon's complex system of sectarian power sharing, the president is expected to be a Maronite Christian, with the prime minister expected to be a Sunni Muslim.^[2]
• Iran-backed Hezbollah, which "extended its hand" to help elect Aoun, criticized Salam's appointment, accusing some Lebanese parties of "staging an ambush aimed at disintegration, partitioning, elimination and exclusion." Aoun's presidency was backed by the US and Saudi Arabia.^[2][3]
• Salam secured the backing of 84 lawmakers in Lebanon's 128-seat parliament. Salam, who is currently abroad, is expected to return to Lebanon on Tuesday. Salam was supported by Christian and Druze factions, as well as some Sunni lawmakers, including those allied with Hezbollah.^[4]
• Hezbollah reportedly believed there had been a political understanding that Mikati would stay on as prime minister before Aoun was elected. Hezbollah said regarding Lebanese politics and the cease-fire with Israel that it will "proceed with calm and wisdom," adding that Israel will be expelled from Lebanese territory.^[4]
• Though Salam has had a long career in Lebanese politics, he recently rose to prominence due to his role as a judge presiding over South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the ICJ. Salam was appointed president of the ICJ in 2024.^[5][6]

Sources: ^[1]CNN, ^[2]Al Jazeera, ^[3]Naharnet, ^[4]Reuters, ^[5]The New Arab and ^[6]Cyprus-Mail.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Al Arabiya. Salam's appointment as prime minister is another loss for Hezbollah and a victory for Lebanese sovereignty. Both Salam and Aoun have many difficult battles ahead, but, for once, there is hope that Lebanon can begin tackling its myriad of political and economic crises. Lebanon's future is bright.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Jerusalem Post. Both Aoun and Salam have been on Lebanon's political scene for some time, yet they have not felt much urgency regarding Hezbollah's weapons. Lebanon has so far failed to reel Hezbollah in, and Israel has been forced to respond. Additionally, Salam is an anti-Israel figure — and one should be skeptical that he will be able to effectively disarm Hezbollah.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Tehran Times. Lebanon's Shiite parties — Hezbollah and the Amal Movement — have been shrewd in terms of dealing with the current political realities of the Middle East and seek to preserve national unity. Foreign influences have worked to deepen sectarian and political divisions, but Hezbollah will not take the bait. Regardless of who is in power, Lebanon must maintain strong relations with friendly regional and Islamic nations.