ICJ Orders Israel to Halt Rafah Operations

Facts

• The International Criminal Court on Friday ordered that Israel halt its offensive into Rafah and that more aid should enter the strip. ICJ Pres. Nawaf Salam said that provisional measures ordered by the court in March did not fully address the situation in Gaza.¹
• Salam's statement said that 'Israel must immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in the Rafah Governorate, which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.' Israel carried out airstrikes after the ruling.²
• The Israeli military said on Friday that its forces had recovered the bodies of three people killed during the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas-led militants and held in Gaza. The military said it found the bodies in Jabalia. Two of the dead were killed at the Nova music festival.³
• The discovery comes as Israeli forces continue to advance in both the north and south of the strip. Clashes were reported near Yibna, a denser part of Rafah that Israeli forces have not yet entered. The main UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) estimated that more than 800K Palestinians have migrated out of Rafah since Israel's targeted military operations in the city began this month.⁴
• Residents of Jabalia reported this week that Israeli forces laid siege to al-Awda Hospital in northern Gaza and stormed it. Patients and staff were also evacuated from the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza earlier this week.⁵
• As the fighting rages, CIA Director Bill Burns is headed to Europe in a bid to restart negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Hamas has signaled it may be open to resuming talks, and the Israeli war cabinet had given the country's negotiating team a new mandate for talks.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²The Times of Israel, ³Reuters (a), ⁴Reuters (b), ⁵Arab News and ⁶AL.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Washington Post. It's simply undeniable that the war in Gaza has taken a terrible toll on its population, and the US is committed to alleviating that suffering. Nonetheless, baseless accusations are unhelpful. The only way to assist the Palestinians in Gaza is to find a cease-fire and resolution to this conflict through negotiations.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Times of Israel. The fact that South Africa's vendetta against Israel is legitimized through international legal proceedings is an absurd mockery of justice and reason. Indeed, all this case does functionally is strengthen Hamas' military position in Gaza, as Israel is forced to fight with its hands tied behind its back. Nonetheless, the ruling leaves room for some conditionality that Israel may continue the offensive as long as civilians are protected.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. Israel has committed regular massacres in Gaza in addition to the famine it has created and must face accountability for its crimes. Though these measures still do not go far enough, given Israel's behavior, the ruling clearly means that Israel must end the offensive and withdraw from the strip.

Predictions