House Republican: US Aid to Israel, Ukraine Unlikely Before 2024

Facts

  • The US is unlikely to approve military aid packages to either Ukraine or Israel before year's end, Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said this weekend. Speaking to NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, Turner said, 'I think it would be very difficult to get it done by the end of the year.'1
  • Initially, the White House under Pres. Joe Biden proposed a $106B supplemental funding request that included money for Israel and Ukraine, as well as setting aside funds for Taiwan, humanitarian aid, and dealing with border security in America's south.1
  • With gulfs of opinion dividing Democrats and Republicans on a number of those issues however, by the time Biden signed into law a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown earlier in the month — a bill that was agreed by both the House and Senate. The bill did not include any aid for Israel or Ukraine, delaying the issue of further military aid for both countries further into the future.2
  • Republicans have since approved an Israel-only bill, but according to Turner, this was rejected by the White House as it did not include funding for Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Republican party itself is divided as to whether Ukraine should continue to receive US aid as a faction of those in opposition has been growing in recent months.1
  • For Ukraine, which is far more dependent on US and Western military aid than Israel, such support meant a great level of uncertainty. High-level diplomatic advocacy from Kyiv for more support for Washington has reportedly occurred twice recently, however, on both occasions, Ukrainian officials came back empty-handed.3
  • In an effort to send reassurances, US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin traveled to Ukraine alongside senior military officials early last week. He announced a $100M weapons package of antiaircraft missiles, artillery shells, and cold-weather equipment, however, larger US packages will still be dependent on approval from Congress.3

Sources: 1The Hill, 2VOA and 3Washington Post.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by The Guardian. Due to the instability in Congress created by Republicans, America's future assistance to Ukraine is now in jeopardy. This creates a risk that Ukraine will no longer be able to meaningfully defend itself from Russian aggression. Republicans need to end this political brinkmanship and support Ukraine's aid immediately.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by The Hill. In spite of over $113B in US funding, the front lines in Ukraine have barely shifted in months of fighting. As such, Americans are right to ask what the strategy is and how the war will eventually be brought to a close. The US cannot be expected to continually throw money at the war, particularly with problems at home and with the national debt spiraling to over $5T.

Predictions