Hong Kong 'Patriots Only' Election Sees Record Low Turnout

Facts

• Hong Kong saw a record-low 27.5% voter turnout on Sunday for its first "patriots only" district council elections, which saw pro-democracy, anti-China candidates removed from the ballot. This followed a record-high turnout in 2019, where pro-democracy candidates won in a landslide, prompting Beijing to pass a 2020 security law banning any candidates deemed disloyal.¹
• Sunday's election saw the pro-establishment Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) winning 109 of the 264 seats up for grabs, with the Federation of Trade Unions taking 27 and New People's Party and the Business and Professionals Alliance winning 15 and 12 seats, respectively.²
• Despite the low turnout, city leader John Lee lauded what he deemed a "high-quality" election, with the central government celebrating it as an example of a "real, functioning democracy." Beijing's top office overseeing both Hong Kong and Macau said the winners should focus on the livelihood and well-being of residents and effectively implement the "one country, two systems" governing principle.²
• To run in this election, in which directly elected seats were cut by 80%, candidates first had to undergo national security background checks and secure nominations from two pro-government committees. This resulted in at least three pro-democracy and non-establishment groups, including moderates and some pro-Beijing politicians, being excluded from the ballot.³
• The fewer than 1.2M Hong Kongers who headed to the polls, far less than the 71% of eligible voters who participated in 2019, came despite a concerted effort by the island's government to boost voter turnout. This included posters and billboards stating "for a better community" placed throughout the city as well as a government-sponsored concert, carnival, and free museum visits the day before the election. ⁴
• On election day, more than 10k police were deployed around the polling stations, resulting in six arrests for alleged violations such as posting online for people to cast invalid ballots or inciting others to disrupt the polls. Three members of the League of Social Democrats, one of the last remaining pro-democracy groups, were among those arrested just before a planned protest.¹

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²South China Morning Post, ³Guardian, and ⁴CNN.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Nikkei Asia. Voter turnout was low for two similar reasons: no one believed their vote would actually count, and if they did step outside to the polls, they risked getting arrested for being a dissident. Ever since young activists spurred record turnout in 2019, Beijing has ensured that, no matter how obviously fraudulent it looked to the rest of the world, Hong Kong would never again conduct a free and fair election. This has not only kept voters on the island from heading to the polls but some opposition leaders from wanting to return home from abroad.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. Beijing tightened candidacy criteria to prevent politicians in cahoots with Western nations from sneaking into office to undermine China and its territories. Beijing also isn't lying about the historically low voter turnout but rather knows that it will take time for the population to understand the importance of excluding traitorous candidates from gaining power. Western-funded outlets like the BBC and VOA are only focusing on Hong Kong's low turnout because they know their own countries' elections are just as "corrupt" as they accuse Beijing of being.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by March 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.